Goldman Upgrades Large Bank Sector, Sees Write-Downs Ending
May 21 2009 - 8:56AM
Dow Jones News
Write-downs and losses on overleveraged bets may be over for the
largest U.S. banks, Goldman Sachs said Thursday, upgrading its
rating on large bank stocks to "neutral" from "cautious."
After about $100 billion in capital raises prompted by the
government stress tests of the 19 largest U.S. banks, Goldman said
large banks look like more attractive investments after reducing
leverage.
Recent improvement in the credit markets may also signal that
write-downs may be nearing an end, the firm said, and profits from
mortgage activity and capital markets will help fund banks' loan
loss reserves.
However, large bank shares declined in premarket trading, with
Regions Financial Corp. (RF) among the largest declines following
its $1.85 billion capital raise Wednesday; shares fell 18.6% to
$3.98.
The upgrade of the whole sector follows Goldman's upgrade of
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) on Monday on increased confidence that
banks can earn their way out of credit losses. Goldman has been
among the leading proponents of the "green shoots" idea driving the
markets higher in recent weeks - the firm's economists see signs of
a potential inflection in several economic indicators, including
jobless claims, retail sales, industrial production and housing
prices.
Goldman also upgraded to "attractive" its view of the trust
banks sector, which includes Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK),
Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS), and State Street Corp. (STT), where it
believes revenue declines may have bottomed last quarter as the
stock market gained and securities lending and currency trading
stabilized.
The firm also upgraded the credit card sector to neutral, which
includes Capital One Financial Corp. (COF), Discover Financial
Services (DFS) and American Express Corp. (AXP), saying that an
improvement in seasonal delinquency trends will give the stocks
relief from the pressures of rising unemployment and changes to
federal laws regulating the credit card industry.
However, the firm kept a cautious rating on the regional banking
sector, saying small banks are behind the capital-raising trend
started by the larger banks following the stress test, and that
they have a greater exposure to the potential for growing weakness
in commercial loans than the large banks.
-By Ed Welsch, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5244;
edward.welsch@dowjones.com