- U.S. home prices posted a 4.9% year-over-year gain in May, the
lowest rate of appreciation recorded since October 2023.
- May’s monthly gains, up by 0.6%, slowed to below pre-pandemic
levels after four months of hotter home price increases.
- All states saw annual home price gains, ranging from 0.9% in
Louisiana and Texas to 12% in New Hampshire.
CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and
data-enabled solutions provider, today released the CoreLogic Home
Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for May 2024.
This press release features multimedia. View
the full release here:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240702825960/en/
HPI and HPI forecast percentage change
year over year. (Graphic: Business Wire)
U.S. year-over-year home price gains inched down to 4.9% in May,
though it was still the 148th consecutive month of annual growth.
As has been the case for the past year, the Northeast continued to
lead the country for annual appreciation, with New Hampshire the
only state to post a double-digit increase. Meanwhile, the price
growth gap between detached homes and attached homes further
widened, likely indicating homebuyer preferences for more personal
space to work from home after the height of the pandemic, as well
as surging HOA fees due to maintenance costs.
“While national annual home price growth continues to slow as
anticipated, cooling appreciation over the past months is now
observed in more markets, as the surge in mortgage rates this
spring caused both slowing homebuyer demand and prices,” said Dr.
Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic. “However, persistently
stronger home price gains this spring continue in markets where
inventory is well below pre-pandemic levels, such as those in the
Northeast.”
“Also, markets that are relatively more affordable, such as
those in the Midwest, have seen healthy price growth this spring,”
Hepp continued. “On the other hand, markets with notable inventory
increases, including those in Florida and Texas, continue to see
annual deceleration that is pulling prices below numbers recorded
last year.”
Top Takeaways:
- U.S. single-family home prices (including distressed sales)
increased by 4.9% year over year in May 2024 compared with May
2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.6%
compared with April 2024.
- In May, the annual appreciation of detached properties (5.4%)
was 2.6 percentage points higher than that of attached properties
(2.8%).
- CoreLogic’s forecast shows annual U.S. home price gains
relaxing to 3% in May 2025.
- San Diego posted the highest year-over-year home price increase
of the country's 10 highlighted metro areas in May, at 9.2%. Miami
saw the next-highest gain at 8.5%.
- Among states, New Hampshire ranked first for annual
appreciation in May (up by 12%), followed by New Jersey and Rhode
Island (both up by 9.8%). No state recorded a year-over-year home
price loss.
The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring June 2024 data,
is scheduled to be issued on August 6, 2024, at 8 a.m. ET.
Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on
industry-leading public record, servicing and securities
real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of
repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends.
Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an
average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an
early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the
Single-Family Combined tier, representing the most comprehensive
set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached
and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully
revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning
points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple
market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type,
price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs.
non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is
available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including
non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based
on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines
the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income
per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum,
mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the
unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI
Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers —
Single-Family Combined (both attached and detached) and
Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales. As a companion
to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with
Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios
to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and
severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP
Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical
confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the
index.
About Market Risk Indicators
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics
solution that provide monthly updates on the overall health of
housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists
combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing
data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in
392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a
multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score
(from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a
>10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the
score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
About the Market Condition Indicators
As part of the CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market
Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and
identify individual markets as overvalued, at value or undervalued.
These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values,
which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets
are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed
their long-term values by greater than 10% and undervalued where
the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than
10%.
Source: CoreLogic
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For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact
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visit https://www.corelogic.com/support/sales-contact/. Data
provided may not be modified without the prior written permission
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About CoreLogic
CoreLogic is a leading provider of property insights and
innovative solutions, working to transform the property industry by
putting people first. Using its network, scale, connectivity and
technology, CoreLogic delivers faster, smarter, more human-centered
experiences that build better relationships, strengthen businesses
and ultimately create a more resilient society. For more
information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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Forecast are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.
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Media Contact: Robin Wachner newsmedia@corelogic.com
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