KBRA releases research assessing the impact of the Los Angeles wildfires on the California insurance market. Over the last several days, the Los Angeles area has experienced unprecedented wildfire activity, with multiple outbreaks across the region. The lack of measurable rainfall in recent months, combined with over 100 mph wind gusts, made Los Angeles County particularly vulnerable to this type of natural disaster. Containment of the fires remains limited, with some areas facing challenges due to insufficient water pressure to combat the flames. Thousands of homes and buildings have already been destroyed, and evacuation orders remain for certain areas.

Key Takeaways

  • The Los Angeles wildfires are expected to be a major catastrophe event for the insurance industry. However, KBRA currently believes the industry—including the reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) markets, which provide substantial coverage for large events—is generally well capitalized to absorb the losses, although some individual carriers may be more heavily impacted than others. Current preliminary insured loss estimates exceed $20 billion and are certain to rise as the full extent of damage is assessed. The concentration of high-value properties combined with recent inflation trends will further contribute to larger-than-normal claims costs. Economic loss estimates approach $150 billion and are also likely to rise over time.
  • In the short term, both personal and commercial property insurance rates in California are likely to significantly increase as companies seek to rebuild depleted capital bases and take advantage of recent regulatory changes that allow insurers to factor reinsurance pricing and predictive modeling into rate filings. In addition to pricing, depending on the magnitude of the losses, the reinsurance market is expected to adjust risk and exposure appetites accordingly.
  • As seen in other recent catastrophe events, such as Hurricane Helene, inadequate insurance penetration will exacerbate the negative impacts for many of those affected by the wildfires. The California FAIR Plan Association, the insurer of last resort, will need to recalibrate its role in the property insurance market in the short term while private insurers adjust to the new environment.

Click here to view the report.

Related Publication

  • Florida Insurers Weather the Storms

About KBRA

KBRA is a full-service credit rating agency registered in the U.S., the EU, and the UK, and is designated to provide structured finance ratings in Canada. KBRA’s ratings can be used by investors for regulatory capital purposes in multiple jurisdictions.

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Sean Campbell, Senior Analyst +1 646-731-3361 sean.campbell@kbra.com

Jonathan Harris, Senior Director +1 646-731-1235 jonathan.harris@kbra.com

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Peter Giacone, Senior Managing Director +1 646-731-2407 peter.giacone@kbra.com

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