Bitcoin Makes Third Retest Of Historical Support, Analyst Sounds Alarm
August 01 2024 - 2:00PM
NEWSBTC
An analyst has warned that support levels weaken the more they are
retested and Bitcoin is now doing a third consecutive retest of a
major such level. Bitcoin Is Again Retesting The Short-Term Holder
Realized Price As explained by CryptoQuant community manager
Maartunn in a new post on X, BTC’s latest drawdown has led to it
doing another retest of the short-term holder Realized Price. The
“Realized Price” here refers to an indicator that, in short, keeps
track of the average cost basis of the investors or addresses on
the Bitcoin network. When the value of this metric is greater than
the spot price of the cryptocurrency, it means the average investor
in the market could be assumed to be holding a net unrealized
profit. On the other hand, the indicator being below the asset’s
value suggests the dominance of losses on the blockchain. Related
Reading: Ethereum Seeing High Exchange Outflows, But Watch Out For
This Bearish Signal In the context of the current topic, the
Realized Price of the entire userbase isn’t of interest, but that
of a specific segment of it: the short-term holders (STHs). The
STHs include all the investors who bought their coins within the
past 155 days. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the
Bitcoin Realized Price for the STHs over the last few months: As
displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin spot price had slipped
under the STH Realized Price in June, but it finally managed to
break above the line halfway through last month. In the weeks since
the asset has seen a couple of pullbacks back to the line, but it
has managed to find rebounds each time. Now, after the latest
decline, the coin’s price is once again retesting the level.
Historically, the STH Realized Price has been a reliable point of
support for the cryptocurrency during bullish periods. The
explanation behind this pattern may lie in how investor psychology
works. The STHs represent the fickle-minded side of the sector, who
are sensitive to change. As such, whenever the price retests their
cost basis, they may be prone to making panic moves. In times when
the atmosphere in the market is bullish, the STHs may believe such
a retest to merely be a dip opportunity, so they could decide to
accumulate more. This could be why Bitcoin has found rebounds at
the level in the past. While the level has generally been reliable
indeed, this latest retest that BTC is facing is already the third
within a narrow period. “Each time a level is tested, it becomes
weaker,” notes Maartunn. Related Reading: XRP Bullish Signal: Shark
& Whale Population Sharply Growing It now remains to be seen if
the Bitcoin STHs still carry a bullish outlook on the
cryptocurrency or if the constant pullbacks have put fear on their
minds. BTC Price Bitcoin has continued its recent bearish momentum
in the past 24 hours as its price has slid another 2% to reach the
$64,700 level. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart
from TradingView.com
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