Home Builders Pare Losses, But No Bottom In Sight
January 29 2009 - 9:07AM
Dow Jones News
Major builders might be narrowing their losses, but there's
still no signs of an imminent turnaround for a battered sector
limping into yet another year of pain.
Late Wednesday, both Meritage Homes Corp. (MTH) and Ryland Group
Inc. (RYL) dramatically shaved fourth-quarter losses. But the
negative commentary continues as consumers remain jittery with the
credit crisis roiling the globe, depressing builders' orders and
selling prices and fueling cancellations and impairments. As job
losses continue and foreclosures mount, recovery may not come until
next year.
Shares of builders fell at the open, with Meritage down nearly
4%. Ryland dipped more than 1%, compared with a nearly 2% drop for
the Dow Jones US Home Construction Index.
"Economic conditions in the fourth quarter of 2008 were the
worst we've experienced to date," said Steven J. Hilton, chairman
and chief executive of Meritage. "The reverberations from the
financial crisis that began in September 2008 impacted all of our
markets, and we experienced a substantial decrease in traffic and
sales."
The Arizona-based builder posted its seventh consecutive
quarterly of red ink, with a net loss of $79.1 million, or $2.58 a
share, compared with $128.8 million, or $4.91 a share, a year
earlier.
Closing revenue fell 35% to $399.6 million, while net orders
plunged 52%. Closings took a 30% hit, while the average selling
price fell about 10% to $259,800. During the 2006 heyday, the
average closing price topped $330,000, according to JPMorgan.
The most recent cancellation rate was 56%, showing many
customers decided not to buy.
Analysts have long been fans of Meritage because it favors
options instead of owning land. But they're concerned about
Meritage's strategy of depending on Texas to survive the downturn.
The Lone Star State, which accounted for 52% of last year's
revenue, saw orders crumble 61%.
"The significant weakness in Texas is troublesome," noted Credit
Suisse's Dan Oppenheim.
Hilton said the company was responding and it remains confident
in its what remains its strongest region because of population and
employment growth and housing affordability.
"We were swift in taking aggressive actions in Texas as our net
sales there fell during the quarter," he said. "We closed certain
communities, sold some assets and consolidated operations in the
region. We'll continue to be cautious until we are more comfortable
with the activity in our Texas region."
California-based Ryland, meanwhile, reported a net loss of $59.9
million, or $1.40 a share, compared with a year-ago loss of $201.9
million, or $4.80 a share.
Revenue tumbled 39% to $528.2 million, while orders dropped 65%.
Closings slid 36% to 1,964.
The average home price dropped 8.6% to $246,000. That's down
from nearly $300,000 during the boom, according to JP Morgan.
To jumpstart business in time for the spring selling season,
builders are unveiling eye-catching specials. Last week, luxury
builder Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) surprised the industry when it
lowered the rate of its 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage to 3.99%.
Industry giant Lennar Corp. (LEN) beat that with 3.875% in some
markets.
Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) is working on a program that would
pay mortgages for some unemployed homeowners. Pulte Homes (PHM),
meanwhile, will make payments until 2010 for qualified buyers in
some markets.
Home builders have strongly lobbied Congress to expand on a
$7,500 temporary tax credit for first-time home buyers, making it
available to all home buyers and eliminating a requirement to pay
the credit back over time.
But Hilton said he's not counting on that: "We fully expect 2009
will be another challenging year, and are not hanging our hopes on
'rescue packages' that are out of our control."
-By Dawn Wotapka, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5248;
dawn.wotapka@dowjones.com
(John Kell contributed to this report.)
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