The home building sector's star has finally dimmed.
NVR Inc. (NVR), which has long outshone its peers by shunning
land ownership, said it swung to a quarterly loss, another blow for
a battered sector limping through a prolonged downturn that shows
few signs of letting up.
Indeed, Thursday, the government said new home sales plunged in
December, capping the worst year for sales since 1982, while two
other large builders, Meritage Homes Corp. (MTH) and Ryland Group
Inc. (RYL), reported losses late Wednesday. The barrage of negative
headlines battered builder stocks. NVR fell nearly 7%, compared
with a 4.75% loss for the Dow Jones US Home Construction Index.
Meritage fell nearly 10%, easily making it the sector's biggest
loser. Ryland posted a nearly 3% gain.
Before the market opened Thursday, Reston-Virginia based NVR
said it lost $30.46 million, or $5.54 a share for the quarter ended
Dec. 31, compared to net income of $67.27 million, or $11.72, a
year earlier.
The company, which took about $121 million in asset impairment
charges, also said that as of Feb. 4 Dwight C. Schar, the executive
chairman, will relinquish the executive officer title, but remain
chairman of the board.
The loss is the company's first of the downturn, said Alex
Barron, Agency Trading Group's building analyst. Unlike other
builders, he doesn't expect future large impairments because of the
lack of land ownership and just $29 million of options remaining on
the books, he said.
"I don't think anybody was expecting" the loss, Barron said,
adding that without the charge the company would have made money.
"What this writeoff means is they don't believe that a lot of the
land options that they had contracted would be profitable if they
would go ahead and build those houses."
Exercising those options would mean building at a loss, Barron
pointed out. The question is: What now?
"That's where it becomes a little bit interesting," he said.
The notoriously guarded company - which went bankrupt in the
last residential downturn and avoids conference calls - said the
quarter's new orders decreased 30%. The cancelation rate was also
30%, dipping from 32% a year earlier, some of the lowest rates to
come from builders recently.
"Relative to the rest of the industry, they still look like
they're outperforming," said Robert Curran, Fitch Rating's lead
home-building analyst.
Meritage and Ryland's numbers weren't as grim: They shaved their
fourth-quarter losses. But Meritage still said the quarter was
painful.
"Economic conditions in the fourth quarter of 2008 were the
worst we've experienced to date," said Steven J. Hilton, Meritage's
chairman and chief executive. "The reverberations from the
financial crisis that began in September 2008 impacted all of our
markets, and we experienced a substantial decrease in traffic and
sales."
Arizona-based Meritage posted its seventh consecutive quarter of
red ink, with a net loss of $79.1 million, or $2.58 a share,
compared with $128.8 million, or $4.91 a share, a year earlier.
Closing revenue fell 35% to $399.6 million, while net orders
plunged 52%. Closings took a 30% hit, while the average selling
price fell about 10% to $259,800. During the 2006 heyday, the
average closing price topped $330,000, according to JPMorgan.
The most recent cancelation rate was 56%, showing many customers
decided not to buy.
Analysts have long been fans of Meritage because, like NVR, it
favors options instead of owning land. But they're concerned about
Meritage's strategy of depending on Texas to survive the downturn.
The Lone Star State, which accounted for 52% of last year's
revenue, saw orders crumble 61%.
"The significant weakness in Texas is troublesome," noted Credit
Suisse's Dan Oppenheim.
Hilton said the company was responding and it remains confident
in what remains its strongest region because of population and
employment growth and housing affordability.
"We were swift in taking aggressive actions in Texas as our net
sales there fell during the quarter," he said. "We closed certain
communities, sold some assets and consolidated operations in the
region. We'll continue to be cautious until we are more comfortable
with the activity in our Texas region."
California-based Ryland, meanwhile, reported a net loss of $59.9
million, or $1.40 a share, compared with a year-ago loss of $201.9
million, or $4.80 a share.
Revenue tumbled 39% to $528.2 million, while orders dropped 65%.
Closings slid 36% to 1,964.
The average home price dropped 8.6% to $246,000. That's down
from nearly $300,000 during the boom, according to JP Morgan.
To jumpstart business in time for the spring selling season,
builders are unveiling eye-catching specials. Last week, luxury
builder Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) surprised the industry when it
lowered the rate of its 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage to 3.99%.
Industry giant Lennar Corp. (LEN) beat that with 3.875% in some
markets.
Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) is working on a program that would
pay mortgages for some unemployed homeowners. Pulte Homes (PHM),
meanwhile, will make payments until 2010 for qualified buyers in
some markets.
Home builders have strongly lobbied Congress to expand on a
$7,500 temporary tax credit for first-time home buyers, making it
available to all home buyers and eliminating a requirement to pay
the credit back over time.
But Hilton said he's not counting on that: "We fully expect 2009
will be another challenging year, and are not hanging our hopes on
'rescue packages' that are out of our control."
-By Dawn Wotapka, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5248;
dawn.wotapka@dowjones.com
(John Kell contributed to this report.)
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