SEATTLE, May 22, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- The United States will likely enter the next
recession in 2020, according to the 2018 Q2 Zillow® Home Price
Expectations Surveyi.
The quarterly survey, sponsored by Zillow and conducted by
Pulsenomics LLC, asked more than 100 real estate experts and
economists about their predictions for the housing market,
including when the next recession would begin and what could
trigger it.
Overall, nearly half of all the experts surveyed expect the next
recession to begin sometime in 2020, with Q1 being the most
commonly selected quarter. More than half of the survey respondents
pointed to monetary policy as the likeliest cause.
The current economic expansion is the second longest in American
history, and will be the longest ever recorded if the panelists'
predictions hold true. The housing market collapse led to the Great
Recession, but few experts – just nine of the respondents – think
the housing market will be at the center of the next downturn.
The Federal Reserve's decisions about U.S. monetary policy will
be the main factor in the next recession, according to the surveyed
experts. By most measures, the economy is doing well – GDP is
growing steadily, and unemployment is near historic lows. This has
prompted the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates
four times since the start of 2017, with two more rate hikes
expected this year. There are roughly even odds for a third hike
before the end of 2018, but raising rates too quickly could push
the economy toward slower growth, leading toward a recession.
"As we close in on the longest economic expansion this country
has ever seen, meaningfully higher interest rates should eventually
slow the frenetic pace of home value appreciation that we have seen
over the past few years, a welcome respite for would-be buyers,"
said Zillow senior economist Aaron
Terrazas. "Housing affordability is a critical issue in
nearly every market across the country, and while much remains
unknown about the precise path of the U.S. economy in the years
ahead, another housing market crisis is unlikely to be a central
protagonist in the next nationwide downturn."
Less than a year ago, panelists in this survey named
geopolitical crisis as the most prominent likely cause of the next
recessionii. Those concerns have fallen below
policy-related fears like trade policy, a correction in the stock
market or an unexpectedly high inflation rate.
In the meantime, experts think the housing market will continue
to experience strong appreciation. They predict U.S. home values
will rise 5.5 percent in 2018 to a median of $220,800. At this time last year, predictions
were for home values to rise 3.7 percent in 2018.
"Constrained home supply, persistent demand, very low
unemployment, and steady economic growth have given a jolt to the
near-term outlook for U.S. home prices," said Pulsenomics founder,
Terry Loebs. "These conditions
are overshadowing concerns that mortgage rate increases expected
this year might quash the appetite of prospective home buyers."
Zillow
Zillow is the leading real estate and rental
marketplace dedicated to empowering consumers with data,
inspiration and knowledge around the place they call home, and
connecting them with great real estate professionals. In addition,
Zillow operates an industry-leading economics and analytics bureau
led by Zillow Group's Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. Dr. Gudell and her team of
economists and data analysts produce extensive housing data and
research covering more than 450 markets at Zillow Real Estate
Research. Zillow also sponsors the quarterly Zillow Home Price
Expectations Survey, which asks more than 100 leading economists,
real estate experts and investment and market strategists to
predict the path of the Zillow Home Value Index over the next five
years. Launched in 2006, Zillow is owned and operated by Zillow
Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:Z and ZG), and headquartered in Seattle.
Zillow is a registered trademark of Zillow, Inc.
Pulsenomics
Pulsenomics LLC (www.pulsenomics.com) is
an independent research and consulting firm that specializes in
data analytics, new product and index development for institutional
clients in the financial and real estate arenas. Pulsenomics also
designs and manages expert surveys and consumer polls to identify
trends and expectations that are relevant to effective business
management and monitoring economic health. Pulsenomics LLC is the
author of The Home Price Expectations Survey™, The U.S. Housing
Confidence Survey, and The U.S. Housing Confidence Index.
Pulsenomics®, The Housing Confidence Index™, and The
Housing Confidence Survey™ are trademarks of Pulsenomics LLC.
|
|
|
i This edition of the Zillow Home
Price Expectations Survey surveyed 105 experts between April 26,
2018 and May 10, 2018. The survey was conducted by Pulsenomics LLC
on behalf of Zillow, Inc.
|
ii https://www.zillow.com/research/experts-recession-late-2019-16334/
|
View original
content:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/experts-predict-next-recession-will-begin-in-2020-300652321.html
SOURCE Zillow