CHICAGO, Sept. 14, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing [NYSE: BA]
today released its annual forecast for the commercial, defense and
space aerospace market, reflecting signs of the industry's recovery
following the impacts of COVID-19. The 2021 Boeing Market Outlook
(BMO) – Boeing's analysis of long-term market dynamics – states
that commercial airplanes and services are showing signs of
recovery, while the global defense, space and government services
markets have remained stable.
The BMO projects a $9 trillion
market over the next decade for aerospace products and services
that Boeing addresses. The forecast is up from $8.5 trillion a year ago, and up from
$8.7 trillion in the pre-pandemic
2019 forecast, reflecting the market's continued recovery
progress.
"As our industry recovers and continues to adapt to meet new
global needs, we remain confident in long-term growth for
aerospace," said Boeing Chief Strategy Officer Marc Allen. "We are encouraged by the fact that
scientists have delivered vaccines more rapidly than imaginable and
that passengers are demonstrating strong confidence in airplane
travel."
Commercial Market Outlook
The new Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) reflects that the global
market is recovering largely as Boeing projected in 2020. Demand
for domestic air travel is leading the recovery, with
intra-regional markets expected to follow as health and travel
restrictions ease, followed by long-haul travel's return to
pre-pandemic levels by 2023 to 2024.
Within the Boeing Market Outlook, the CMO projects 10-year
global demand for 19,000 commercial airplanes valued at
$3.2 trillion. Boeing's 20-year
commercial forecast through 2040 projects demand for more than
43,500 new airplanes valued at $7.2
trillion, an increase of about 500 planes over last year's
forecast.
In a significant area of growth, projected demand has increased
for dedicated freighters, including new and converted models. With
sustained demand for air cargo tied to expanding e-commerce and air
freight's speed and reliability, the CMO projects the global
freighter fleet in 2040 will be 70% larger than the pre-pandemic
fleet.
"The aerospace industry has made important progress in the
recovery, and Boeing's 2021 forecast reflects our confidence in the
resilience of the market," said Stan
Deal, president and CEO, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "While
we remain realistic about ongoing challenges, the past year has
shown that passenger traffic rebounds swiftly when the flying
public and governments have confidence in health and safety during
air travel. Our industry continues to serve an essential role of
bringing people together and transporting critical supplies."
Highlights of the new 20-year CMO forecast include:
- The availability and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines will
continue to be critical factors in the near-term recovery of
passenger air travel. Countries with more widespread vaccination
distribution have shown rapid air travel recovery, as governments
ease domestic restrictions and open borders to international
travel.
- Passenger traffic growth is projected to increase by an average
of 4% per year, unchanged from last year's forecast.
- The global commercial fleet will surpass 49,000 airplanes by
2040, with China, Europe, North
America and the Asia-Pacific countries each accounting for
about 20% of new airplane deliveries, and the remaining 20% going
to other emerging markets.
- Demand for more than 32,500 new single-aisle planes is about
equal to the pre-pandemic outlook. These models continue to command
75% of deliveries in the 20-year forecast.
- Carriers will need more than 7,500 new widebody airplanes by
2040 to support fleet renewal and long-term passenger and air cargo
demand growth in longer-haul markets. These projections are up
slightly compared to 2020 but remain down 8% from 2019.
Airplane demand,
2021-2040
|
Airplane
type
|
Seats
|
Total
deliveries
|
Regional
jets
|
90 and
below
|
2,390
|
Single-aisle
|
90 and
above
|
32,660
|
Widebody
|
|
7,670
|
Freighter
widebody
|
---------
|
890
|
Total
|
---------
|
43,610
|
The CMO is the longest-running jet forecast and is regarded as
the most comprehensive analysis of the commercial aviation
industry. Learn more about the Commercial Market Outlook.
Services Market Outlook
Boeing forecasts a $3.2 trillion
market opportunity for its served services market with commercial,
business and general aviation services representing $1.7 trillion and government services
representing $1.5 trillion through
2030.
Digital solutions, including analytics offerings, interiors
modifications and freighter conversions, have proven to be bright
spots in the long-term services landscape as customers adjust to
leaner operations for future growth and meet strong cargo
demand.
Training services will see a near-term increase in demand as
personnel transition to new aircraft types, maintain certifications
and return from pandemic-related pauses in active service. Demand
for services dependent on aircraft utilization, such as
maintenance, parts and supply chain, will continue to follow the
market recovery.
"Our customers are preparing for growth, and we see fleet
modifications and continued parts consumption going hand in hand
with the global fleet expansion," said Ted
Colbert, president and CEO, Boeing Global Services. "This
demand will be coupled with the continued adoption of digital tools
and services to enhance fleet readiness, reliability and
efficiency."
Learn more about the Services Market Outlook.
Defense and Space Market Outlook
The BMO also projects the defense and space market opportunity
will remain consistent with last year's forecast at $2.6 trillion during the next decade. These
large, stable markets have enduring demand driven by geopolitical
and security challenges. This spending projection continues to
reflect the ongoing importance of military aircraft, autonomous
systems, satellites, spacecraft and other products for national and
international defense, with 40 percent of expenditures expected to
originate outside of the United
States.
"While we've seen resiliency and stability in the global defense
and space market, the threat environment continues to evolve," said
Leanne Caret, president and CEO of Boeing Defense, Space &
Security. "Winning the future fight will require speed and
flexibility, and Boeing is committed to designing, testing,
building and sustaining in a way that will enable our customers to
adapt at the speed of relevance and derive the most value from our
platforms for decades to come. Our mission – which is grounded in
safety, quality and integrity – is to deliver the most digitally
advanced, simply and efficiently produced solutions that are
intelligently supported to our global customers."
Learn more about the Defense and Space Market Outlook.
Pilot and Technician Outlook
As the commercial aviation industry continues to make progress
toward recovery from the pandemic, a steady increasing supply of
personnel and effective training remain critical to retain the
health, safety and prosperity of the aviation ecosystem. Long-term
demand for newly qualified aviation personnel remains strong, with
projected demand for more than 2.1 million personnel needed to fly
and maintain the global commercial fleet over the next 20 years,
including 612,000 pilots, 626,000 maintenance technicians and
886,000 cabin crew members.
Learn more about the Pilot and Technician Outlook.
CAUTION CONCERNING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
Certain statements in this release may be "forward-looking"
within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act
of 1995. Words such as "may," "should," "expects," "intends,"
"projects," "plans," "believes," "estimates," "targets,"
"anticipates" and similar expressions generally identify these
forward-looking statements. Examples of forward-looking statements
include statements relating to our future plans, business
prospects, financial condition and operating results, as well as
any other statement that does not directly relate to any historical
or current fact. Forward-looking statements are based on
expectations and assumptions that we believe to be reasonable when
made, but that may not prove to be accurate. These statements are
not guarantees and are subject to risks, uncertainties and changes
in circumstances that are difficult to predict.
Many factors could cause actual results to differ materially and
adversely from these forward-looking statements, including the
COVID-19 pandemic and related industry impacts; the 737 MAX,
including the timing and conditions of 737 MAX regulatory
approvals, lower than planned production rates and/or delivery
rates, and increased considerations to customers and suppliers;
economic conditions in the United
States and globally; general market and industry conditions
as they may impact us or our customers; reliance on our commercial
customers, our U.S. government customers and our suppliers; the
overall health of our aircraft production system, as well as the
other important factors disclosed previously and from time to time
in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Any
forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is
made, and we assume no obligation to update or revise any such
statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or
otherwise, except as required by law.
As a leading global aerospace company, Boeing develops,
manufactures and services commercial airplanes, defense products
and space systems for customers in more than 150 countries. As a
top U.S. exporter, the company leverages the talents of a global
supplier base to advance economic opportunity, sustainability and
community impact. Boeing's diverse team is committed to innovating
for the future and living the company's core values of safety,
quality and integrity. Learn more at
www.boeing.com.
Contact:
Rafael Gonzalez
Boeing Communications
Rafael.d.gonzalez2@boeing.com
Boeing Media Relations
Media@Boeing.com
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SOURCE Boeing