DALLAS, Nov. 29, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's
California Economic Activity Index increased by 0.1 points in
September to 124.0. September's reading is 26 points, or 27
percent, above the index cyclical low of 97.7. The index averaged
121.1 points in 2017, 2.5 points above the average for all of 2016.
August's reading was revised to 123.9.
Comerica Bank's California Economic Activity Index saw a modest
gain in September, up for the second consecutive month. Five of the
eight factors were positive for September including nonfarm
employment, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), house prices,
total state trade and the Dow Jones technology stock index. The
three negative factors were housing starts, industrial electricity
demand and hotel occupancy. The labor components, house prices and
tech sector valuations have been consistent positives for our index
so far in 2018. However, California house prices, particularly in
Southern California, are
moderating on a year-year basis and tech stocks have declined
recently. According to Case-Shiller data, San Diego home prices were up 4 percent in the
12 months ending in September, the slowest annual home price growth
for that area since 2012. Los
Angeles home prices were up 5.6 percent. San Francisco home prices were still up a
strong 10 percent in September. The Dow Jones technology stock
index slid into correction territory after peaking in early October
and remains down 14.3 percent through November 27. Financial market volatility and
rising borrowing costs may continue to weigh on tech stocks. Trade
policy with China is another
wildcard. The Trump Administration has threatened to increase
tariffs on Chinese imports in January. The G-20 meeting in
Buenos Aries this week may provide
an opportunity for more U.S./China
discussions on trade.
The California Economic Activity Index consists of eight
variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing
claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price
index, industrial electricity sales, total trade, technology stock
index and hotel occupancy. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index
levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
Comerica Bank, with locations in the key California markets of San Francisco and the East Bay, San Jose, Los
Angeles, Orange County,
San Diego, Fresno, Sacramento, Santa
Cruz/Monterey, and the
Inland Empire, is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:
CMA). Comerica is a financial services company headquartered in
Dallas, Texas, and strategically
aligned into three major business segments: the Business Bank, the
Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on
relationships and helping businesses and people be successful..
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank