In Q1 2024, Mainstreet posted its ninth consecutive quarter of
double-digit, year-over-year growth across all key operating
metrics. Funds from operations (“FFO”) before current income tax
grew near the fastest rates in Mainstreet history at 32%, FFO
increased 23%, net operating income (“NOI”) increased 23%,
same-asset NOI rose 16% and rental revenues grew 19%.
Bob Dhillon, Founder, President & CEO of Mainstreet, said,
“These results underscore Mainstreet’s track record of operational
success, as we continue to leverage our trusted countercyclical
growth strategy to drive shareholder value.” He added, “In this
time of structural housing undersupply, Mainstreet continues to
pride ourselves as a vital supplier of affordable, quality,
renovated living for middle-class Canadians.”
What’s new in 2024
- Mainstreet has announced that it will pay a nominal quarterly
dividend (starting at $0.0275 per share for Q1 2024) for the first
time. Its introduction was part of Mainstreet’s strategic decision
to continue widening our shareholder base and increasing our
trading volumes.
- Mainstreet vacancy rates decreased to 3.3% (despite 13% of
Mainstreet’s portfolio currently being in the stabilization
process) down from 4.4% in Q1 2023. Same asset vacancy dropped to
3.2% from 4.4% a year earlier.
- Margins on a same-asset basis improved to 64.2% in Q1, up from
61.5% in Q1 2023. These are some of Mainstreet’s best operating
margins on record for the winter season, which we attribute to
multiple factors including our relentless dedication to efficient
operations (see Challenges below).
- Year-to-date (“YTD”) acquisitions totalled $62.3 million (508
units). Acquisitions in Q1 were $45.3 million, up from $33.6
million a year earlier.
- Liquidity remained strong at $418 million, despite high levels
of acquisitions in Q1, providing Mainstreet with a strong cash
balance to fund future organic growth.
We believe these highly positive results are consistent with the
demonstrated success of Mainstreet’s value-add business model.
Since Mainstreet began trading on the TSX in 2000, we have expanded
our portfolio from a handful of rental units to more than 17,600
units YTD, and built up a $3-billion asset base while avoiding
significant equity dilution. By adhering to our trusted
countercyclical growth strategy, Mainstreet has for years leveraged
low cost of capital and our sizable liquidity position to acquire
underperforming rental properties at attractive prices, which
properties are then renovated to bring them up to a consistent
standard.
In Q1, the Canadian rental market continued to be dominated by
structural imbalances that are likely to persist in the long term
as soaring demand greatly outstrips new supply. In the last three
years alone, Canada’s population has grown by 2.49 million
people—more than Canada’s entire rental universe of 2.3 million
apartments, according to CMHC data. Over that same period, the
rental market added just 133,204 new purpose-built units, according
to CMHC data. Given that supply shortages are the result of
historical trends compounded over many years, we believe this
imbalance will remain a fixture in the market for a prolonged
time.
These market forces have pushed national vacancy rates to their
lowest levels on record of 1.5%. Based on CMHC data, Rental vacancy
in Edmonton and Calgary, two of Mainstreet’s biggest operating
hubs, fell at the fastest rate in the country in 2023 (down to 2.3%
and 1.4%, respectively). Historically low vacancies can also be
seen across all other Mainstreet centres including Vancouver
(0.9%), Regina (1.4%), Saskatoon (2%) and Winnipeg (1.8%). We
believe these current trends are just the beginning of a multi-year
cycle that will provide ample opportunity for Mainstreet to pursue
our 100% organic, non-dilutive growth strategy.
CHALLENGES
Inflation and cost pressures
Despite promising macroeconomic tailwinds, rising costs continue
to pose a challenge to Mainstreet. Primarily, higher interest rates
increase the cost of Mainstreet debt, our single-largest expense.
Mainstreet has locked 99% of our debt into CMHC-insured mortgages
at an average interest rate of 2.89%, maturing in 5.4 years, to
proactively protect us against any eventual rate increase(see
Outlook below). Smaller line items including everything from labour
to materials are also impacted by inflation, elevating operating
costs.
Additionally, due to strong growth and consecutive operating
profits over the past 24 years, we are now liable for corporate
income taxes for one of the first times in Mainstreet’s history. We
view our performance as an unmitigated success, and do not expect a
material impact on Mainstreet’s overall performance going
forward.
Combatting higher expenses
Mainstreet works tirelessly on multiple fronts to counteract
rising expenses. By securing longer-term natural gas contracts, we
substantially reduced energy costs across a large portion of
Mainstreet buildings. We also managed to reduce our insurance
costs—a sizable Mainstreet expense—by more than 13% for fiscal 2024
by obtaining improved premium rates and coverage. Still, major
fixed expenses like maintenance and utilities, property taxes and
apartment repairs remain high. Carbon taxes, which place the
financial burden on property owners, are scheduled to rise
annually, from $65 per tonne today to $170 by 2030. Despite our
best efforts to control costs where possible, inflationary
pressures nonetheless introduce added financial burdens that will,
in some cases, be passed onto tenants through soft rent
increases.
Ottawa’s international student cap
The federal government recently placed a two-year limit on the
number of new student visas Canada awards, reducing intake 35% from
2023 levels. According to the immigration ministry’s official
estimates, Canada will still approve 360,000 new studies in 2024
this year under the cap.
OUTLOOK
Turning intangibles to tangibles
Heading into 2024, we see multiple opportunities to expand our
portfolio. To combat the ongoing housing shortage, Canadian
municipalities are increasingly increasing density through rezoning
efforts. Mainstreet, with an extensive portfolio of more than 800
low density buildings, is well placed to similarly extract more
value out of existing assets and land titles at no cost. To that
end, Management is in the early stages of developing a three-point
plan to 1) turn unused or residual space within existing buildings
into new units 2) explore zoning and density relaxations to
potentially build new capacity within existing land footprints and
3) subdivide residual lands for future developments. While the plan
is currently conceptual in nature, we view this as a major driver
of future growth in the longer-term, and further evidence of
Mainstreet’s inherent intangible value.
A long-term view on short-term debt
As debt markets shift due to rising interest rates, Mainstreet
continues to take an adaptive approach to our mortgage positions.
In the past, when interest rates were lower, Mainstreet locked in
its mortgages at longer-term, 10-year maturities to maximize
savings. Now that rates are higher, we have shifted toward
shorter-term debt obligations, which will yield more cost reduction
should interest rates eventually fall.
BC continues to perform
We expect Vancouver/Lower Mainland will continue to provide
exceptional growth in 2024. British Columbia is a vital aspect of
Mainstreet’s portfolio, accounting for approximately 46% of our
estimated net asset value (“NAV”) based on IFRS value. With an
average monthly mark-to-market gap of $702 per suite per month, 98%
of our customers in the region are below the average market rent.
According to our estimates, that translates into approximately $29
million in same-store NOI growth potential after accounting for
tenancy turnover and mark-to-market gaps.
Alberta’s population swells
Alberta, which comprises the largest portion of Mainstreet’s
portfolio, continues to see explosive population growth that has
far surpassed the Canadian average. Despite expectations that
economic growth will decline in Alberta the next two years, Alberta
is still expected to lead the national average of economic growth
in 2024 (Deloitte). In the year ended October 2023, Alberta’s
population grew 4.3%, to 4.75 million. This represents the highest
annual growth rate since the early 1980s and is also significantly
higher than the national rate of 3.2%. In Q3 alone, Alberta added
61,000 people, and marked the fifth consecutive quarter of
in-migration gains higher than 10,000.
RUNWAY ON EXISTING PORTFOLIO
- Pursuing our 100% organic, non-dilutive growth model: Using our
strong potential liquidity position, estimated at $418 million, we
believe there is significant opportunity to continue acquiring
underperforming assets at attractive valuations. As such,
Mainstreet will continue to solidify its position as a leader in
the add-value, mid-market rental space in Western Canada.
- Closing the NOI gap: As of Q1 2024, 13% of Mainstreet’s
portfolio was going through the stabilization process as a result
of recent acquisitions. Once stabilized, we remain confident
same-asset revenue, vacancy rates, NOI and FFO will be meaningfully
improved. We are cautiously optimistic that we can increase cash
flow in coming quarters. In the BC market alone, we estimate that
the potential upside based on mark-to-market gaps for NOI growth is
approximately $29 million. The Alberta market in particular also
has substantial room for mark-to-market catch up.
- Buying back shares at a discount: We believe MEQ shares
continue to trade below their true NAV, and that ongoing
macroeconomic volatility could intensify that trend.
Forward-Looking Information
Certain statements contained herein constitute “forward-looking
statements” as such term is used in applicable Canadian securities
laws. These statements relate to analysis and other information
based on forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet
determinable and assumptions of management. In particular,
statements concerning: estimates related to the effect of rising
interest rates on the Corporation, the effect that inflation will
have on: (i) the Corporation’s tenants and the effect on credit
risk; and (ii) the cost of renovations and other expenses,
disruptions effecting the global supply chain and energy and
agricultural markets (including as a result of geopolitical turmoil
including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and other geopolitical
conflicts), future acquisitions, dispositions and capital
expenditures, future vacancy rates, increase of rental rates and
rental revenue, future income and profitability, timing of
refinancing of debt, access to low-cost long-term Canada Mortgage
and Housing Corporation (“CMHC”) insured mortgage loans, the
potential changes in interest and mortgage rates, the potential
changes in inflation rates, completion timing and costs of
renovations, benefits of renovations, funds to be expended on
renovations in fiscal year 2024 and the sources thereof, increased
funds from operations and cash flow, access to capital,
minimization of operating costs, the Corporation’s liquidity and
financial capacity, the Corporation’s intention and ability to make
distributions to shareholders in fiscal 2024, improved rental
conditions and decreased vacancy rates, the period of time required
to stabilize a property, future climate change impact, the
Corporation’s strategy and goals and the steps it will take to
achieve them, the Corporation’s anticipated funding sources to meet
various operating and capital obligations, key accounting estimates
and assumptions used by the Corporation, the attraction and hiring
of additional personnel, the effect of changes in legislation on
the rental market, expected cyclical changes in cash flow, net
operating income and operating margins, the effect of environmental
regulations on financial results, the handling of any future
conflicts of interests of directors or officers, the effects of
cyber incidents on the Corporation and other factors and events
described in this document should be viewed as forward-looking
statements to the extent that they involve estimates thereof. Any
statements that express or involve discussions with respect to
predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives,
assumptions of future events or performance (often, but not always,
using such words or phrases as “expects” or “does not expect”, “is
expected”, “anticipates” or “does not anticipate”, “plans”,
“estimates” or “intends”, or stating that certain actions, events
or results “may”, “could”, “would”, “might” or “will” be taken,
occur or be achieved) are not statements of historical fact and
should be viewed as forward-looking statements.
Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future
events or performance and by their nature involve known and unknown
risks, uncertainties and other factors, including those risks
described in this Annual Information Form under the heading "Risk
Factors", that may cause the actual results, performance or
achievements of the Corporation to be materially different from any
future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by
such forward-looking statements. Such risks and other factors
include, among others, costs and timing of the development of
existing properties, availability of capital to fund stabilization
programs, other issues associated with the real estate industry
including availability but without limitation of labour and costs
of renovations, fluctuations in vacancy rates, unoccupied units
during renovations, rent control, fluctuations in utility and
energy costs, credit risks of tenants, fluctuations in interest
rates and availability of capital, and other such business risks as
discussed herein. Material factors or assumptions that were applied
in drawing a conclusion or making an estimate set out in the
forward-looking statements include, among others, the rental
environment compared to several years ago, relatively stable
interest costs, access to equity and debt capital markets to fund
(at acceptable costs) and the availability of purchase
opportunities for growth in Canada. Although the Corporation has
attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual
actions, events or results to differ materially from those
described in forward-looking statements, other factors may cause
actions, events or results to be different than anticipated,
estimated or intended. There can be no assurance that such
statements will prove to be accurate as actual results and future
events could vary or differ materially from those anticipated in
such forward-looking statements. Accordingly, readers should not
place undue reliance on forward-looking statements contained
herein.
Forward-looking statements are based on Management's beliefs,
estimates and opinions on the date the statements are made, and the
Corporation undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking
statements if these beliefs, estimates and opinions should change
except as required by applicable securities laws or as otherwise
described therein.
Certain information set out herein may be considered as
"financial outlook" within the meaning of applicable securities
laws. The purpose of this financial outlook is to provide readers
with disclosure regarding the Corporations reasonable expectations
as to the anticipated results of its proposed business activities
for the periods indicated. Readers are cautioned that the financial
outlook may not be appropriate for other purposes.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240206013107/en/
For further information: Bob Dhillon, Founder, President
& CEO D: +1 (403) 215-6063 Executive Assistant: +1 (403)
464-6520 100, 305 10 Avenue SE, Calgary, AB T2G 0W2 Canada TSX: MEQ
https://www.mainst.biz/ https://www.sedarplus.ca
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