Zacks increases price target of Dejour Energy to $1.05 - Analyst Blog
January 26 2012 - 7:47AM
Zacks
Zacks increases price target of Dejour Energy to
$1.05
Steven Ralston, CFA
Today, Dejour Energy (DEJ)
announced that Gustavson & Associates LLC (independent
reservoir engineering consultants) updated the NI 51-101 compliant
reserve report on the company’s Kokopelli Project. The PV-10 of
Proved Undeveloped reserves increased 11% from C$83 million to C$92
million.
Dejour Energy’s NAV is now estimated to be $134 million ($1.06 per
share) as of December 31, 2011. The $133 million is attained by
adding the company’s assets of $20 million of land (at cost), $117
million of PV-10 Proved Reserves and net cash of $3 million and
deducting $6 million in debt, which listed as a current liability
(bank line of credit and bridge loan) on the company’s balance
sheet. The $117 million is composed of $92 million for the Proved
Undeveloped reserves at Kokopelli and the $25 million of Proved
Reserves. Therefore, our target price is being increased to $1.05
per share.
Our valuation process for small and mid-cap E&P oil & gas
companies is based upon Net Asset Value (NAV), which involves
evaluating a company’s assets and reserves. The NAV calculation
entails applying several subjective inputs, such as land valuation
(cost or market), a predicted oil price, oil versus gas mix,
predicted gas price, drilling costs deep offshore wells versus,
drilling success rate, mix of development and exploratory wells,
etc.
Also, we are cognizant that there are nuances concerning the
quality of reserves that are not captured in our valuation model.
One such feature is that by treating PDs and PUDs similarly, our
model does not capture some of the inherent risks of PUDs. Since
uncertainties exist about the ultimate conversion of PUDs to PDs,
there is an inherent discount valuation related to PUDs that must
be considered.
In the case of Dejour, the majority of proven reserves are
undeveloped ($92 million of the $117 million). However, these PUDs
are within or adjacent to a known producing gas field. In addition,
Williams Companies is extending a pipeline from its Grand Valley
gathering system to the Kokopelli Field, where Dejour’s PUDs are
located. This both reduces most of the uncertainties related to the
PUDs and also provides an efficient method to transport Dejour’s
natural gas into a large-scale, high-volume distribution
system.
As gas wells begin to produce (eight wells are expected to be
drilled in 2012), the natural gas reserves associated with the
wells become proved developed producing reserves (PDs or PDPs)
instead of proven undeveloped reserves (PUDs). We expect a positive
valuation increment in the marketplace as PUDs at Kokopelli become
PDs. When the uncertainties associated with PUDs abate, the
discount to NAV that pertains to the PUDs at Kokopelli should be
reduced or entirely eliminated. As the PUDs become producing wells
in the first half of 2012, the marketplace may not only eliminate
the discount to NAV of the producing wells, but also reduce or
eliminate the discount related to a portion or all of the 93 PUDs
identified by Gustavson & Associates at Kokopelli. Gustavson
also categorized an additional 127 locations as Probable
Undeveloped under the NI 51-101. As the certainty of the value of
the PUDs increases, we expect the valuation of Dejour’s stock to
migrate towards Net Asset Value.
We reiterate our Outperform rating and raise our price target to
$1.05.
To view a free copy of our most recent research report on
DEJ or subscribe to our daily morning email alert, visit
http://scr.zacks.com/.
DEJOUR ENERGY (DEJ): Free Stock Analysis Report
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