Wall Street is bracing for a week of grim economic indicators,
highlighted by an expected rise in the U.S. unemployment rate and
January sales declines at auto makers and major retailers.
While the peak of the fourth-quarter earnings season is past,
three components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and 93 members
of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index are scheduled to post
results next week.
On Sunday, Super Bowl XLIII is expected to become the
highest-rated TV broadcast since the big game last year, though NBC
still was in active negotiations this week to sell ad time that
usually is snapped up far in advance.
Jan. Unemployment Rate Could Reach 7.5%<
The U.S. unemployment rate for January, to be released Feb. 6,
is expected to grow to 7.5% as companies continued to cut thousands
of jobs throughout the month. The December rate climbed to 7.2%,
the highest since 1993. Nearly 2.6 million jobs were lost in 2008,
with 1.9 million cut in the final four months of the year.
30% Decline Likely For Jan. Auto Sales<
New vehicle sales in the U.S. for January are expected to fall
30% from a year earlier and 18% from December, according to
car-shopping Web site Edmunds.com, continuing a dramatic downturn
that began in September.
Auto makers will report their sales for the past month on
Tuesday. While Edmunds' research shows retail sales were
essentially flat with December, large sales declines could result
from cuts in fleet sales and other production cuts.
Jan. Retail Sales Expected To Fall 2.4%<
Retailers are likely to post 2.4% lower same-store sales for
January than a year earlier, according to Thomson Reuters. In
January 2008, retail sales rose 0.4%. Most major retailers will
report January sales on Thursday.
Excluding sales at the world's largest retailer, Wal-Mart Stores
Inc. (WMT), analysts are looking for a 5.7% decline in same-store
sales. Wal-Mart predicted its sales would be flat to up 2%, while
Wall Street expects a 0.7% increase. All retail categories except
for drugstores expect declines, with apparel and department stores
down the most, 10.9% and 10.8%, respectively.
Bellwethers UPS, Kraft To Post 4Q Results<
United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS), often considered a bellwether
for the general economy, is expected to post a 1% decline in
revenue Tuesday. In addition to the broader economic woes, the
company has lost business as trucking customers increasingly move
their bulk shipments to railroads.
Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT), which reports Wednesday, should benefit
from penny-pinching consumers dining at home instead of out. But
the food giant could be hurt as some consumers opt for cheaper
store brands.
4Q Reports From Merck, Schering-Plough<
Drug makers Merck & Co. (MRK) and Schering-Plough Corp.
(SGP) report results Monday and Tuesday, respectively. Analysts
expect Merck to post earnings of 74 cents a share on revenue of
$5.98 billion, down from 80 cents on revenue of $6.24 billion a
year earlier. Last month, Merck, which is in the middle of a
cost-cutting program, said 2009 earnings would be flat because of
the poor economy. Schering-Plough is expected to earn 30 cents a
share on revenue of $4.52 billion, compared with 27 cents and $3.72
billion, respectively, a year earlier. Last fall, the company said
it expected fourth-quarter equity income to be lower than in each
of the first three quarters because of anticipated lower U.S. sales
of cholesterol drugs Vytorin and Zetia.
Life, Health Insurers Report On 4Q<
Several big life insurers will post fourth-quarter results next
week as they continue to suffer from investment losses as well as
reductions in the fees they charge to manage investors' savings.
MetLife Inc. (MET) and Prudential Financial (PRU) both report
Wednesday and Hartford Financial Services (HIG) on Thursday.
Meanwhile, health insurers confront rising medical costs,
difficulties in pricing premiums and potential enrollment losses.
Humana Inc. (HUM), which reports Monday, has seen dramatic growth
geographically because of its Medicare Advantage program. Cigna
Corp. (CI), which reports Thursday, plans to offer employers less
costly, "lean" fully insured health plans this year in an effort to
catch up with rivals such as Aetna Inc (AET).
Media Companies To Post Results<
Several large media companies report quarterly results next week
amid a dramatic slowdown in advertising and increased competition
from the Internet.
Walt Disney Co. (DIS), which reports Tuesday, is less dependent
on ad dollars than other media giants, but the recession threatens
its theme-parks business, which makes up nearly a quarter of its
profit.
Reporting Wednesday, Time Warner Inc. (TWX) has said it would
record some $25 billion in fourth-quarter write-downs to reflect
the declining values of cable franchise rights, AOL and the Time
Inc. magazine business.
News Corp. (NWS, NWSA), which reports Thursday, has been buoyed
by its cable-TV channels, satellite-TV operations and Internet
businesses. But it has been cutting jobs because it also gets a
considerable part of its revenue from newspapers and TV stations,
which have seen sharp drops in ad sales.
News Corp. is publisher of The Wall Street Journal and this
newswire.
FDA Panel To Vote On Prasugrel<
The Food and Drug Administration's cardiovascular and renal
drugs advisory committee meets Tuesday to consider Eli Lilly &
Co.'s (LLY) and Daiichi Sankyo Co.'s (4568.TO) experimental
anticlotting drug prasugrel, which some analysts previously thought
could be a big seller. Now expectations are modest after FDA
reviewers on Friday posted a report recommending the drug be
approved, but with tough warnings about bleeding and cancer risks.
Warnings and other restrictions on the drug's use could limit its
commercial potential and make it that much harder to overtake the
current gold-standard anticlotting drug, Plavix, co-marketed by
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) and Sanofi-Aventis (SNY).
The FDA panel of outside experts will vote on whether to
recommend the agency approve the drug; an agency decision could
soon follow.
Digital-TV Delay Bill Goes To House<
The U.S. House will vote next week to delay until June 12 the
date when television stations must broadcast in all-digital format,
according to a senior House Democratic aide. The vote will occur
under rules that will ensure the bill will pass. The Senate passed
the same bill on a unanimous vote Monday. Without the bill, all TV
stations must stop broadcasting their programs in analog format
Feb. 17.
Super Bowl Of Football, Ads<
While many people will tune into the Super Bowl for the
football, even more will be watching Sunday for the ads, which this
year are adopting a hard-sell approach amid the deepening
recession. General Electric's (GE) Universal Orlando theme park and
the Denny's (DENN) chain of restaurants are among those hoping
their ads will have an immediate effect on sales and store traffic.
Marketers are paying as much as $3 million for 30 seconds of ad
time, about 10% more than last year's prices.
Hollywood Union Reps To Meet<
Representatives of Hollywood's warring producers and actors
groups plan to meet for two days starting Tuesday. The meeting is
the first in more than two months, setting the stage for a possible
breakthrough in their contract feud. The Screen Actors Guild has
been in a standoff with the Alliance of Motion Picture and
Television Producers since a previous contract expired in June. SAG
is holding out for a greater share of royalties from Internet
video.
Personal Income, Spending Data Due<
The government will release reports on December personal income
and spending as well as construction spending Monday. Another
report due that day is the Institute for Supply Management's report
on January manufacturing activity. That group also reports on the
service sector Wednesday.
The National Association for Realtors issues its December
pending home-sales index Tuesday, and data on December factory
orders will be out Friday.
Among appearances by Federal Reserve officials: Cleveland Fed
President Sandra Pianlato speaks Wednesday in Cleveland; St. Louis
Fed President James Bullard on Thursday in Clayton, Mo.; and San
Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen on Feb. 6 in Hawaii.
Conferences<
Among the significant conferences next week are the Credit
Suisse Group Energy Summit from Monday through Friday in Vail,
Colo.; JPMorgan Global High Yield & Leveraged Finance
Conference from Monday through Wednesday in Miami Beach, Fla.;
Cowen & Co. Aerospace/Defense Conference on Wednesday and
Thursday in New York; and Dow Jones Newswires Global Ethics Summit
on Wednesday and Thursday in New York.
-By Kathy Shwiff, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5975;
kathy.shwiff@dowjones.com
(Peter Loftus and other Dow Jones Newswires staff contributed to
this report.)
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