By Carla Mozee
Most major Latin American equity markets rose Tuesday as
investors picked up stocks battered in the previous session, and as
they moved to close the books on the month and the first quarter of
2009.
In Sao Paulo Tuesday, the Bovespa rose 0.7% at 40,925.87 with
all 10 of sectors tracked ending in positive territory. Shares of
mining giant Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) rose 0.3%, rising
among other steel stocks. The shares are up 12% since the start of
the year.
Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) slipped 0.8%. The oil company's
preferred shares, which make up 19% of the Bovespa, logged a
first-quarter gain of 25%, their best advance since June 2008.
Cable operator Net Servicos de Comunicacao (NETCD) topped
quarterly advancers with a 28.72% climb.
In Mexico City, the IPC rose 0.5% to 19,626.785, with shares of
cement maker Cemex (CX) up 3%, and copper miner Grupo Mexico up
3.4%.
The broad-based gains were in sharp contrast to Monday's market
when 31 of the 32 components of the benchmark posted losses.
Mexican market heavyweight America Movil (AMX) rose 1.4% for the
session, but slumped 9.1% for the quarter.
Argentina's Merval rose 0.3% to 1,106.41. Steel tube maker
Tenaris (TS) gained 1.4% on Tuesday, and ended the quarter up
7.9%.
But Chile's IPSA slipped 0.6% to 2,478.94. Shares of heavyweight
Copec slipped 0.5%, but have added 7.3% since the start of
2009.
Flashes of recovery
The financial crisis still has a firm grip on global conditions,
but flashes of signs of recovery in the region and in Asia,
particularly in China, will have helped most of Latin America's
benchmarks finish with gains for March and the quarter.
"What you're seeing is that companies in Brazil and China are
performing on a relative basis stronger than many in the developed
economies," said Rob Lutts, chief investment officer at Cabot Money
Management, "basically because they aren't dealing with many of the
problematic issues in the banking systems.
"I'm seeing leveling off of growth, not a retrenchment of what
was happening six months ago," he said.
For the month of March, the Bovespa rose 7.2%, its best monthly
performance since late April 2008.
March gains for Mexico and Argentina were 10.6% and 10.5%,
respectively, their best month since the end of December.
Chile's IPSA posted a modest gain of 0.4%. Last month, the index
slid. 3.2%.
For the first quarter, the Bovespa jumped 9%. The Merval and
IPSA each advanced 4.3%. All of the benchmarks snapped two straight
quarters of losses.
Those quarterly performances are significantly better than the
S&P 500 Index's (SPX), the U.S. stock index widely watched by
market professionals. It registered a decline of 11.7%.
"The largest emerging markets should also be a source of
stability once growth starts to recover in the major economies,"
said Fitch Ratings in a global economic outlook released
Tuesday.
Fitch said expects growth in the largest emerging markets --
Brazil, Russia, India and China -- to remain positive at 3.2%.
Still, it cautions that many emerging markets "are being severely
affected by the decline in world trade, commodity prices and
capital flows."
It forecast world gross domestic product to decline by 2.7% in
2009.
Mexican stocks at a loss; IMF money on the way?
For the first quarter, Mexico's IPC slumped 12.3%, its fourth
consecutive month of declines. The last time the index fell fourth
quarters in a row was in the fourth-quarter of 1997 through the
third quarter of 1998.
Equities have been hit in part on expectations of slower
earnings growth as companies battle the impact of the U.S.
recession on Mexico, which exports more than 80% of its goods to
the U.S.
However, the country's currency, the peso, climbed more than 7%
in March, its biggest monthly surge since the 1995 devaluation of
the currency.
Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman,
in a note Tuesday said that investor confidence could be hurt by
news that Mexican President Felipe Calderon is set to accept a $30
billion to $40 billion credit line from the International Monetary
Fund.
There are investor "concerns that the corporate sector is facing
a large-scale currency mismatch, which would help explain the
potential IMF deal, "he said, also noting that Mexican central bank
Governor Guillermo Ortiz has said the country may soon activate its
currency-swap line with the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Win, in a follow-up note to clients, asked if the IMF program is
"a sign of being proactive, or of being desperate? Only time will
tell, stay tuned."
The peso ended Tuesday at 14.186 per U.S. dollar.