Extreme heat, coastal storm surge, inland flooding and more violent
storms are the most significant climate-driven impacts to Con
Edison’s energy delivery systems and its customers through the 21st
century, according to a report issued today.
The report (coned.com/resilience), developed by Con Edison in
collaboration with ICF and Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty
Earth Observatory, leverages the latest available climate science
data. The study evaluated present-day infrastructure, design
specifications, and procedures against expected climate change to
better understand its future impact on Con Edison’s energy delivery
systems. The company’s electric, gas and steam systems are all
subject to increased flooding from coastal storms, while the
electric system is also challenged during periods of sustained
heat.
Among the study’s findings is an increase in days when the heat
index will reach or exceed 103 degrees, from two days a year now to
anywhere from seven to 26 days a year by 2050.
The 36-month study, authorized by the New York State Public
Service Commission (NYPSC) as part of a collaborative created after
Superstorm Sandy, describes historical and projected climate
changes across Con Edison’s service area in New York City and
Westchester County.
“We recognize the global scientific consensus that climate
change is occurring at an accelerating rate,” said Tim Cawley,
president of Con Edison. “While climate change’s exact pace and
effects are uncertain, the study provides a strong foundation upon
which to plan, design, and invest in our energy delivery systems to
better protect them and serve our customers.”
To account for climate uncertainty, the study considered a range
of potential climate futures reflecting both unabated and reduced
greenhouse gas concentrations through time and evaluated extreme
“stress test” scenarios.
The analysis identified the following most significant
climate-driven risks to Con Edison’s systems:
- Sea level rise
- Coastal storm surge
- Inland flooding from intense rainfall
- Hurricane-strength winds
- Extreme heat
While Con Edison already uses a range of measures to build
resilience to weather events, the vulnerabilities identified in the
study will guide the company’s future strategy to strengthen its
reliability and resilience against increasingly harsh weather.
The report estimates the company might need to invest between
$1.8 billion and $5.2 billion by 2050 on targeted programs to
protect its electric, gas and steam delivery systems and customers
from the impacts of climate change. Con Edison will further
evaluate future adaptation strategies and associated costs through
the development of 5-, 10- and 20-year plans. Con Edison typically
invests approximately $3 billion every year on its energy
infrastructure.
Con Edison has been aggressive in upgrading its electric, gas
and steam systems against severe weather. Following Superstorm
Sandy, the company invested $1 billion over four years to protect
its systems. After a pair of severe storms struck in quick
succession in March 2018, Con Edison coordinated with Westchester
County to spend an additional $100 million to fortify the electric
delivery system in the areas that suffered the most
devastation.
While the study assessed vulnerabilities within Con Edison’s
present-day systems to a future climate, an implementation plan
must also consider the evolving market for energy services and
potential changes to services and infrastructure driven by
customers, government policy and external actions over time.
As a next step from the study, Con Edison will develop a
detailed Climate Change Implementation Plan by the end of 2020 to
operationalize the recommendations from this Climate Change
Vulnerability Study. The Implementation Plan will consider updates
in climate science; finalize an initial climate design pathway;
integrate that pathway into agency specifications and processes
based on input from subject matter experts; develop a timeline for
action with associated costs and signposts; and recommend a
governance structure. Similar to this study, the company will
engage a stakeholder group for input on scope and to provide
updates on a quarterly basis.
Comments of Participants/Stakeholders:
Jainey Bavishi, Director of the Mayor’s Office of
Resiliency:“As climate change worsens, New York City’s
energy system must keep pace. This study is the first step towards
understanding the climate threats facing critical infrastructure,
and we look forward to working closely with the utility as they
identify and develop resiliency investments for their electric,
gas, and steam systems.”
Elizabeth B. Stein, Senior Manager and Senior Attorney
at Environmental Defense Fund:“The energy infrastructure
we invest in today will be with us for decades, so we must plan for
the warmer future that science tells us is coming. The Climate
Vulnerability Study will help Con Edison plan for reliability in a
changing climate and represents an important initial step in the
direction of aligning energy system planning with New York’s future
energy needs.”
Michael Gerrard, Professor at Columbia Law School and
Director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law:"This
study advances the global state of the art in anticipating the
impacts of climate change on critical infrastructure. It will
help Con Edison to assure reliable service in the face of future
floods, heat waves and other extreme events, and it will provide a
template for other utilities to undertake similar work, as they
should. I am gratified that the collaborative proceeding we
helped launch after Superstorm Sandy has led to this study, and we
look forward to participating in the upcoming work to act on the
study's findings."
Radley Horton of Columbia’s Lamont-Doherty Earth
Observatory:“Through this study, Con Edison took on some
of the most vexing and pressing questions in climate science.
They include how different climate variables like heat and humidity
will interact in the future; how sequences of extreme weather might
change, and how can we go beyond climate models to ask what a
plausible worst-case scenario looks like for underappreciated
hazards like extreme heat and extreme precipitation.”
Anne Choate, ICF Senior Vice President: “In the
face of a changing climate, advancing resilience is crucial for
maintaining critical infrastructure services. This report reflects
Con Edison’s commitment to understanding physical climate risks and
builds a rich foundation for implementing resilience solutions. ICF
appreciates the opportunity to partner with Con Edison throughout
this landmark study; this effort will serve as a benchmark for
utilities around the country.”
Con Edison is a subsidiary of Consolidated Edison, Inc. [NYSE:
ED], one of the nation’s largest investor-owned energy companies,
with approximately $12 billion in annual revenues and $56 billion
in assets. The utility delivers electricity, natural gas and steam
to 3.5 million customers in New York City and Westchester County,
N.Y. For financial, operations and customer service information,
visit conEd.com. For energy efficiency information, visit
coned.com/energyefficiency. Also, visit us on Twitter and
Facebook.
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