Strategic Global Income Fund, Inc. (the "Fund") (NYSE:SGL) is a
non-diversified, closed-end management investment company seeking a
high level of current income as a primary objective and capital
appreciation as a secondary objective through investments in US and
foreign debt securities.
Fund Commentary for the fourth quarter of 2015 from UBS Asset
Management (Americas) Inc. (“UBS AM”), the Fund’s investment
advisor
Market review
The global fixed income market largely produced weak results
during the fourth quarter of 2015. US economic data was mixed over
the last three months of the year. After remaining on hold in
October, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in nine
years at its meeting in December. In its official statement the Fed
said, "The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative after
this increase, thereby supporting further improvement in labor
market conditions and a return to two percent inflation." For the
quarter as a whole, the yield on the two-year Treasury rose from
0.64% to 1.06%, whereas the yield on the 10-year Treasury moved
from 2.06% to 2.27%. To a great extent, government yields outside
the US also moved higher during the three-month period.
The overall US bond market, as measured by the Barclays US
Aggregate Index, declined 0.57% during the fourth quarter, as did
global government bond markets, as measured by the Citigroup World
Government Bond Index, which fell by 1.23%.1,2 Conversely, the
Citigroup World Government Bond Index (hedged in US dollars) had a
slightly positive return of 0.08% for the quarter.3
Sector overview
Most US investment grade spread sectors posted negative total
returns during the period.4 Lower-quality securities, such as high
yield corporate bonds, generated even weaker results. After a sharp
rally in October, the emerging markets debt asset class was flat in
November and declined in December. Investor sentiment for the asset
class fluctuated given signs of moderating growth in China, sharply
falling commodity prices and uncertainties regarding the direction
of future global monetary policy. All told, the J.P. Morgan
Emerging Markets Bond Index Global (EMBI Global) gained 1.55%
during the quarter.5 Local currency emerging markets debt, as
measured by the J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index–Emerging Markets
Global Diversified (GBI–EM Global Diversified), declined 0.01%
during the quarter.6
Performance review
During the fourth quarter of 2015, the Fund posted a net asset
value total return of 0.30% and a market price total return of
13.08%. On a net asset value total return basis, the Fund
outperformed its benchmark, the Strategic Global Benchmark (the
“Index”), which declined 0.30% over the quarter.7 The Fund’s
trading discount narrowed significantly after the October 13, 2015,
issuance of a press release announcing a proposal to liquidate the
Fund in 2016. This contributed to the higher market price total
return performance for the period.
The Fund’s credit exposure contributed to results during the
quarter. In particular, our overweights to investment grade and
high yield corporate bonds were beneficial for the period as a
whole. More specifically, our credit allocations were additive to
results in October. These positives, however, were partially offset
by spread widening in November and December. Out-of-benchmark
allocations to agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and
commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), along with our
exposure to sovereign agencies, also benefited returns for the
period. Elsewhere, the Fund's currency exposure modestly
contributed to performance. On the downside, yield curve
positioning detracted from results. The Fund's allocation to
collateralized loan obligations ("CLOs") also detracted from
performance.
Within the emerging markets debt asset class, the Fund's
underweight to Argentina was not rewarded. Its spread tightened as
investor sentiment improved following elections in the country and
hopes for meaningful political reforms. Our preference for
Columbian quasi-sovereign debt relative to the country's US
dollar-denominated sovereign debt also negatively impacted
performance.8 On the upside, an underweight to Brazilian
quasi-sovereigns contributed to results. The Fund's allocation to
Venezuelan US dollar-denominated debt was positive for performance.
Finally, an underweight to Mexico was rewarded.
Several changes were made to the portfolio during the quarter.
For example, we adjusted the Fund's currency exposures and trimmed
our credit allocation over the last three months of the year. Also
of note, we tactically used credit derivatives to hedge our credit
allocation and to act as partial protection against wider credit
spreads.
Outlook
We believe the US economy has enough momentum to continue
expanding, but growth will be far from robust. We also expect
inflation to remain relatively muted. Overseas, growth is slowly
improving in Europe, and we anticipate continued monetary policy
accommodation from the European Central Bank. We remain cautious
regarding growth in Asia. In particular, we are worried about the
slower pace of growth in China and its impact on the global
economy. Turning to the fixed income market, we are concerned about
the impact of additional Fed rate hikes. In addition, uncertainty
regarding the pace and magnitude of future Fed actions could
trigger periods of market volatility. Finally, it is beginning to
look increasingly likely that the credit cycle may have turned. In
light of this, we have trimmed the Fund's lower-quality credit
exposure and expect to actively manage this allocation going
forward.
We believe 2016 is likely to be a year of transition for
emerging markets (EM), as many countries will likely still be in
the midst of adjusting their economies to the new reality
of lower commodity prices, trade volumes and capital inflows.
Against this backdrop, growth in developing countries is likely to
remain subdued in 2016, although we expect a mild recovery from
2015 levels. We believe this will be mainly due to base effects, as
some of the larger countries, including Russia, may strengthen in
2016. One of the main reasons for persistently low growth rates in
EM countries is the ongoing economic adjustment in China. With
China's growth rates slowing to mid-single digits from mid-double
digits a decade ago, global trade volumes and commodity prices have
declined significantly, reflecting China's increasing role in
international trade. These adverse dynamics have had a detrimental
impact on EM countries' export values, with no evidence of any
improvement in the foreseeable future.
Important Note: As previously announced in a press
release issued on October 13, 2015, based upon the recommendation
of UBS Asset Management (Americas) Inc., the Fund's investment
advisor, the Fund's Board of Directors determined that liquidation
and dissolution of the Fund is in the best interests of the Fund's
shareholders. A proposed plan of liquidation will be submitted for
the approval of the Fund’s shareholders at the Fund’s March 2016
annual meeting of shareholders. If the shareholders approve the
proposed plan, the liquidation and dissolution of the Fund will
take place as soon as reasonably practicable, but in no event later
than December 31, 2016 (absent unforeseen circumstances).
Portfolio statistics as of December 31, 20159
Top ten countries (bond holdings only)10
Percentage of net assets (%) United States
46.4 United Kingdom 7.0 New Zealand 4.1 Germany
2.7 France 2.5 Mexico 2.2 Brazil 2.1
Canada 1.9 Spain 1.8 Ireland 1.5
Total
72.2 Top ten currency breakdown (includes
all securities and other instruments)11
Percentage of net assets (%) United States Dollar
75.4 Euro 8.6 New Zealand Dollar 4.0 British Pound
3.5 Australian Dollar 2.9 Canadian Dollar 0.9
Brazilian Real 0.9 Mexican Peso 0.6 Russian Ruble
0.4 Japanese Yen 0.2
Credit quality12
Percentage of net assets (%) AAA 3.1 US
Treasury13 6.7 US Agency13,14 1.8 AA 10.4 A
6.6 BBB 23.2 BB 20.1 B 8.6 CCC and
Below 1.6 Non-rated 15.4 Cash and other assets, less
liabilities 2.5
Total 100.0
Characteristics Net asset value per share15
9.11 Market price per share15 8.76 Duration16
5.3 yrs Weighted average maturity 7.0 yrs
Any performance information reflects the deduction of the Fund’s
fees and expenses, as indicated in its shareholder reports, such as
investment advisory and administration fees, custody fees, exchange
listing fees, etc. It does not reflect any transaction charges that
a shareholder may incur when (s)he buys or sells shares (e.g., a
shareholder’s brokerage commissions).
Disclaimers Regarding Fund Commentary - The Fund
Commentary is intended to assist shareholders in understanding how
the Fund performed during the period noted. Views and opinions were
current as of the date of this press release. They are not
guarantees of performance or investment results and should not be
taken as investment advice. Investment decisions reflect a variety
of factors, and the Fund and UBS AM reserve the right to change
views about individual securities, sectors and markets at any time.
As a result, the views expressed should not be relied upon as a
forecast of the Fund’s future investment intent.
Past performance does not predict future performance. The return
and value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's
shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original
cost. Any Fund net asset value ("NAV") returns cited in a Fund
Commentary assume, for illustration only, that dividends and other
distributions, if any, were reinvested at the NAV on the payable
dates. Any Fund market price returns cited in a Fund Commentary
assume that all dividends and other distributions, if any, were
reinvested at prices obtained under the Fund's Dividend
Reinvestment Plan. Returns for periods of less than one year have
not been annualized. Returns do not reflect the deduction of taxes
that a shareholder would pay on Fund dividends and other
distributions, if any, or on the sale of Fund shares.
Investing in the Fund entails specific risks, such as
interest rate, credit and the risks associated with investing in
the securities of non-US issuers, including those located in
emerging market countries. The value of the Fund's
investments in foreign securities may fall due to adverse
political, social and economic developments abroad, and due to
decreases in foreign currency values relative to the US
dollar. Further detailed information regarding the Fund,
including a discussion of principal objectives, principal
investment strategies and principal risks, may be found in the fund
overview located at
http://www.ubs.com/closedendfundsinfo. You may also
request copies of the fund overview by calling the Closed-End Funds
Desk at 888-793 8637.
©UBS 2016. All rights reserved. The key symbol and UBS are among
the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS.
____________________
1 The Barclays US Aggregate Index is an unmanaged
broad-based index designed to measure the US-dollar-denominated,
investment grade, taxable bond market. The index includes bonds
from the Treasury, government-related, corporate, mortgage-backed,
asset-backed and commercial mortgage-backed sectors. Investors
should note that indices do not reflect the deduction of fees and
expenses. 2 The Citigroup World Government Bond Index is an
unmanaged market-capitalization-weighted index designed to measure
the performance of fixed-rate, local currency, investment grade
sovereign bonds with a one-year minimum maturity. Investors should
note that indices do not reflect the deduction of fees and
expenses. 3 The Citigroup World Government Bond Index (hedged in
USD) is an unmanaged market-capitalization-weighted index designed
to measure the performance of fixed-rate, local currency,
investment grade sovereign bonds with a one-year minimum maturity
and is hedged back to the US dollar. Investors should note that
indices do not reflect the deduction of fees and expenses. 4 A
spread sector refers to non-government fixed income sectors, such
as corporate investment grade or high yield bonds, commercial
mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), etc. 5 The J.P. Morgan Emerging
Markets Bond Index Global (EMBI Global) is an unmanaged index which
is designed to track total returns for US dollar-denominated debt
instruments issued by emerging market sovereign and quasi-sovereign
entities: Brady bonds, loans and Eurobonds. Investors should note
that indices do not reflect the deduction of fees and expenses. 6
The J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index–Emerging Markets Global
Diversified (GBI–EM) is an unmanaged index which is designed to
track the total returns for local currency debt instruments issued
by emerging market governments. 7 The Strategic Global Benchmark is
an unmanaged index compiled by the advisor, constructed as follows:
67% Citigroup World Government Bond Index (WGBI) and 33% J.P.
Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global (EMBI Global). Investors
should note that indices do not reflect the deduction of fees or
expenses. 8 Quasi-sovereign bonds are securities issued by entities
supported by the local government. 9 The Fund’s portfolio is
actively managed, and its portfolio composition will vary over
time. 10 Excludes exposures obtained via derivatives (e.g., swaps).
11 Forward foreign currency contracts are reflected at unrealized
appreciation/depreciation; this may not align with the risk
exposure described in the portfolio commentary section which
reflects forward foreign currency contracts based on contract
notional amount. As of the most recent period end, December 31,
2015, the Fund maintained a risk exposure to non-US dollar
currencies equal to approximately 35% of the Fund. 12 Credit
quality ratings shown in the table are based on those assigned by
Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC, a part of McGraw-Hill
Financial (“S&P”), to individual portfolio holdings. S&P is
an independent ratings agency. Rating reflected represents S&P
individual debt issue credit rating. While S&P may provide a
credit rating for a bond issuer (e.g., a specific company or
country), certain issues, such as some sovereign debt, may not be
covered or rated and, therefore, are reflected as non-rated for the
purposes of this table. Credit ratings range from AAA, being the
highest, to D, being the lowest, based on S&P’s measures;
ratings of BBB or higher are considered to be investment grade
quality. Unrated securities do not necessarily indicate low
quality. Further information regarding S&P’s rating methodology
may be found on its website at www.standardandpoors.com. Please
note that any references to credit quality made in the commentary
preceding the table may reflect ratings based on multiple providers
(not just S&P) and thus may not align with the data represented
in this table. 13 S&P downgraded long-term US government debt
on August 5, 2011 to AA+. Other rating agencies continue to rate
long-term US government debt in their highest ratings categories.
The Fund’s aggregate exposure to AA-rated debt as of June 30, 2014
would include the percentages indicated above for AA, US Treasury
and US Agency debt but has been broken out into three separate
categories to facilitate understanding. 14 Includes agency
debentures and agency mortgage-backed securities. 15 Net asset
value (NAV) and market price will fluctuate. 16 Duration is a
measure of price sensitivity of a fixed income investment or
portfolio (expressed as % change in price) to a 1 percentage point
(i.e., 100 basis points) change in interest rates, accounting for
optionality in bonds such as prepayment risk and call/put features.
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UBS Asset ManagementClosed-End Funds Desk: 888-793
8637ubs.com
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