InPlay Oil Corp. (TSX: IPO) (OTCQX: IPOOF) (“InPlay” or the
“Company”) is pleased to announce an operations update and a
long-term forecast through 2025.
Operations Update
InPlay is currently producing at record
production levels of 9,600 boe/d(2) (57% light oil and NGLs) based
on field estimates. In Willesden Green, three (2.9 net) Extended
Reach Horizontal (“ERH”) wells were brought on production
approximately ten days ago and an additional two (1.9 net) ERH
wells will be brought on production in the next few days. These
wells are currently in the early clean-up stage and should achieve
peak production over the next 30 to 60 days. The Company’s current
plans from our original capital program is to drill one (0.95 net)
additional two-mile well in Willesden Green.
Given the strong operational results in 2022 to
date, InPlay expects to be in the upper half of our full year 2022
production guidance which equates to 9,150 to 9,400 boe/d(2).
This forecast is estimated to deliver production growth of 28% to
31% on a per share basis (83% to 92% on a debt adjusted per share
basis (1)) which is expected to be top-tier amongst light oil
peers.
InPlay has elected to drill additional
extended reach wells in 2022 (and fewer one-mile wells) than
originally planned, including two two-mile ERH wells which achieved
exceptional efficient drill times. The Company is also
expecting increased industry activity levels in the first
quarter of 2023. With our strong balance sheet, InPlay plans to
take advantage of utilizing our preferred contractors and is
now tactically planning to start 2023 expenditures in late 2022 by
initiating preliminary construction work and adding two horizontal
(2.0 net) Belly River light oil wells to the 2022 capital program.
These wells are expected to be brought on production late in the
fourth quarter positioning the Company for significant production
increases in 2023. The Belly River is a producing play which we
have not drilled in since 2016 and plans are to utilize the
technologies and expertise developed in our Cardium play over
the years. These wells have a high light oil weighting
(approximately 90% - 95% light oil) that receives a premium to our
benchmark Mixed Sweet Blend (“MSW”) pricing. The Company also plans
to invest in environmental initiatives by constructing a
third vapour recovery unit for additional emission conservation. As
a result, the Board of Directors have approved an increased 2022
development capital budget of $70 to $72 million.
Outlook and Long-Term Forecast
(3)
InPlay is continuously evaluating market
conditions including current recession concerns in order to
maximize shareholder returns. Even with the current volatility,
commodity prices continue to remain historically strong in part due
to the weak Canadian dollar, resulting in high rates of return on
capital investment and short payout periods. It is InPlay’s belief
that long-term commodity pricing will remain strong due to the lack
of industry wide capital spending over recent
years, restrictive government regulations and mandates and
unstable global geopolitics leading to a multi-year bull cycle
in crude oil prices. The Company is continuing to rapidly pay down
debt and is in the best operational and financial position in our
history while remaining focused on our disciplined strategy.
InPlay is pleased to provide a forecast to the
end of 2025. The Company’s strategy is to continue to provide
top-tier light-oil weighted growth, maintaining a strong financial
position while providing significant FAFF and sustainable returns
to shareholders. Our strategy is to provide organic production
growth in a range of 6% - 10%. At a WTI price of US $80/bbl or
better, we target 10% production growth and with WTI
pricing of approximately US $60/bbl, production growth of 6%
is targeted. This is demonstrated in our forecast to 2025 which
would provide a meaningful return to shareholders.
The table below outlines the highlights of the
four year forecast based on the following WTI pricing
scenarios:
|
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
WTI (US$/bbl) |
93.25 |
75.00 |
70.00 |
65.00 |
Production (boe/d)(2) |
9,150 – 9,400 |
9,900 – 10,400 |
10,650 – 11,200 |
11,300 – 11,900 |
Capital ($ millions) |
70 – 72 |
69 – 71 |
75 – 77 |
80 – 82 |
Net wells |
17.5 |
17.5 – 18.5 |
18.5 – 19.5 |
21.0 – 22.0 |
DAPPS Growth (%)(1) * |
83 – 92 |
46 – 59 |
40 – 45 |
30 – 35 |
AFF ($ millions)(4) |
139 – 143 |
134 – 140 |
136 – 142 |
133 – 139 |
FAFF ($ millions)(1) |
67 – 73 |
63 – 71 |
59 – 67 |
51 – 59 |
Working Capital (Net Debt) at Year-end ($ millions)(4) |
(12) – (16) |
43 – 50 |
97 – 103 |
141 – 147 |
Annual Net Debt / EBITDA(1) |
0.1 – 0.2 |
(0.3) – (0.4) |
(0.7) – (0.8) |
(1.0) – (1.1) |
EV / DAAFF(1)* |
1.5 – 1.6 |
1.2 – 1.3 |
0.8 – 0.9 |
0.5 – 0.6 |
* Assumes a $2.50 share price
This forecast shows the high quality
deliverability and return of our assets evidencing the
sustainability of the Company with increasing positive working
capital and minimal leverage.
Return of Shareholder
Capital
InPlay’s trailing 12 month net debt to earnings
before interest, taxes and depletion (“EBITDA”) ratio was less than
0.5 times at the end of the second quarter and is forecast to be
0.1 – 0.2 times at the end of 2022. With this threshold achieved,
in addition to the continued generation of FAFF, elimination of
debt and generation of positive working capital forecasted through
to 2025, the Company is committed towards providing a return of
capital to shareholders. The Company believes that our share price
is currently significantly undervalued and the prudent first step
in enhancing returns to shareholders is a share buyback program
which the Company's Board of Director's has approved for
implementation and will be subject to regulatory approval. With
this in place the Company will be able to acquire common shares at
opportunistic times and share prices.
As outlined above in the long term forecast, the
Company is forecasting to generate material FAFF resulting in a
growing positive working capital balance through to 2025. Our
strategy for the accumulating additional FAFF is to provide returns
to shareholders through potential share buybacks, dividends,
increased tactical capital investment and accretive strategic
acquisitions.
Given the significant volatility in both
commodity prices and market conditions experienced in recent weeks,
the Company and its Board of Directors will continue to monitor and
evaluate the timing and implementation of additional returns to
shareholders.
The Company has been disciplined in maintaining
operational flexibility by quickly adapting to changing market
conditions and commodity price fluctuations in making business
decisions. This same prudent approach is currently being followed.
Management would like to thank our employees, board members,
lenders and shareholders for their support and we look forward to
continuing our journey of deleveraging and delivering strong
returns to shareholders in a sustainable, prudent and responsible
manner.
For further information please contact:
Doug BartolePresident and Chief Executive OfficerInPlay Oil Corp.
Telephone: (587) 955-0632 |
|
Darren Dittmer Chief Financial Officer InPlay Oil Corp. Telephone:
(587) 955-0634 |
Notes:
- Non-GAAP
financial measure or ratio that does not have a standardized
meaning under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS)
and GAAP and therefore may not be comparable with the calculations
of similar measures for other companies. Please refer to “Non-GAAP
and Other Financial Measures” contained within this press
release.
- See “Production
Breakdown by Product Type” at the end of this press release.
- See “Reader
Advisories – Forward Looking Information and Statements” for full
details and key budget and underlying assumptions related to our
2022 capital program and associated guidance and long-term
forecast.
- Capital
management measure. See “Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures”
contained within this press release.
Reader Advisories
Non-GAAP and Other Financial
Measures
Throughout this press release and other materials disclosed by
the Company, InPlay uses certain measures to analyze financial
performance, financial position and cash flow. These non-GAAP and
other financial measures do not have any standardized meaning
prescribed under GAAP and therefore may not be comparable to
similar measures presented by other entities. The non-GAAP and
other financial measures should not be considered alternatives to,
or more meaningful than, financial measures that are determined in
accordance with GAAP as indicators of the Company performance.
Management believes that the presentation of these non-GAAP and
other financial measures provides useful information to
shareholders and investors in understanding and evaluating the
Company’s ongoing operating performance, and the measures provide
increased transparency and the ability to better analyze InPlay’s
business performance against prior periods on a comparable
basis.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Ratios
Included in this document are references to the terms “free
adjusted funds flow (“FAFF”)”, “Net Debt to EBITDA”, “Production
per debt adjusted share (“DAPPS”)” and “EV / DAAFF”. Management
believes these measures and ratios are helpful supplementary
measures of financial and operating performance and provide users
with similar, but potentially not comparable, information that is
commonly used by other oil and natural gas companies. These terms
do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP and should
not be considered an alternative to, or more meaningful than
“profit (loss) before taxes”, “profit (loss) and comprehensive
income (loss)”, “adjusted funds flow”, “capital expenditures”,
“corporate acquisitions, net of cash acquired”, “working capital
(net debt)”, “weighted average number of common shares (basic)” or
assets and liabilities as determined in accordance with GAAP as a
measure of the Company’s performance and financial position.
Free Adjusted Funds Flow (“FAFF”)
Management considers FAFF per share important
measures to identify the Company’s ability to improve its financial
condition through debt repayment, which has become more important
recently with the introduction of second lien lenders, on an
absolute and weighted average per share basis. FAFF should not be
considered as an alternative to or more meaningful than AFF as
determined in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of the Company’s
performance. FAFF is calculated by the Company as AFF less
exploration and development capital expenditures and property
dispositions (acquisitions) and is a measure of the cashflow
remaining after capital expenditures before corporate acquisitions
that can be used for additional capital activity, corporate
acquisitions, and repayment of debt or decommissioning expenditures
or potentially return of capital to shareholders. FAFF per share is
calculated by the Company as FAFF divided by weighted average
outstanding shares. Refer to the “Forward Looking Information and
Statements” section for a calculation of forecast FAFF.
Net Debt to EBITDA
Management considers Net Debt to EBITDA an important measure as
it is a key metric to identify the Company’s ability to fund
financing expenses, net debt reductions and other obligations.
EBITDA is calculated by the Company as adjusted funds flow before
interest expense. When this measure is presented quarterly, EBITDA
is annualized by multiplying by four. When this measure is
presented on a trailing twelve month basis, EBITDA for the twelve
months preceding the Net Debt date is used in the calculation. This
measure is consistent with the EBITDA formula prescribed under the
Company's Senior Credit Facility. Net Debt to EBITDA is calculated
as Net Debt divided by EBITDA. Refer to the “Forward Looking
Information and Statements” section for a calculation of forecast
Net Debt to EBITDA.
Production per Debt Adjusted Share
InPlay uses “Production per debt adjusted share”
as a key performance indicator. Debt adjusted shares should not be
considered as an alternative to or more meaningful than common
shares as determined in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of the
Company’s performance. Debt adjusted shares is a non-GAAP measure
used in the calculation of Production per debt adjusted share and
is calculated by the Company as common shares outstanding plus the
change in working capital (net debt) divided by the Company's
current trading price on the TSX, converting working capital (net
debt) to equity. Debt adjusted shares should not be considered as
an alternative to or more meaningful than weighted average number
of common shares (basic) as determined in accordance with GAAP as
an indicator of the Company’s performance. Management considers
Debt adjusted share is a key performance indicator as it adjusts
for the effects of capital structure in relation to the Company’s
peers. Production per debt adjusted share is calculated by the
Company as production divided by debt adjusted shares. Management
considers Production per debt adjusted share is a key performance
indicator as it adjusts for the effects of changes in annual
production in relation to the Company’s capital structure. Refer to
the “Forward Looking Information and Statements” section for a
calculation of forecast production per debt adjusted share.
EV / DAAFF
InPlay uses “enterprise value to debt adjusted
AFF” or “EV/DAAFF” as a key performance indicator. EV/DAAFF is
calculated by the Company as enterprise value divided by debt
adjusted AFF for the relevant period. Debt adjusted AFF (“DAAFF”)
is calculated by the Company as adjusted funds flow plus financing
costs. Enterprise value is a capital management measures that is
used in the calculation of EV/DAAFF. Enterprise value is calculated
as the Company’s market capitalization plus working capital (net
debt). Management considers enterprise value a key performance
indicator as it identifies the total capital structure of the
Company. Management considers EV/DAAFF a key performance indicator
as it is a key metric used to evaluate the sustainability of the
Company relative to other companies while incorporating the impact
of differing capital structures. Refer to the “Forward Looking
Information and Statements” section for a calculation of forecast
EV/DAAFF.
Capital Management Measures
Adjusted Funds Flow
Management considers adjusted funds flow to be
an important measure of InPlay’s ability to generate the funds
necessary to finance capital expenditures. Adjusted funds flow
(“AFF”) is a GAAP measure and is disclosed in the notes to the
Company’s consolidated financial statements for the year ending
December 31, 2021 and the most recently filed quarterly financial
statements. All references to AFF throughout this document are
calculated as funds flow adjusting for decommissioning expenditures
and transaction and integration costs. This item is adjusted from
funds flow as decommissioning expenditures are incurred on a
discretionary and irregular basis and are primarily incurred on
previous operating assets and transaction costs are non-recurring
costs for the purposes of an acquisition, making the exclusion of
these items relevant in Management’s view to the reader in the
evaluation of InPlay’s operating performance. The Company also
presents AFF per share whereby per share amounts are calculated
using weighted average shares outstanding consistent with the
calculation of profit (loss) per common share.
Working Capital (Net Debt)
Working capital (Net Debt) is a GAAP measure and
is disclosed in the notes to the Company’s consolidated financial
statements for the year ending December 31, 2021 and the most
recently filed quarterly financial statements. The Company closely
monitors its capital structure with a goal of maintaining a strong
balance sheet to fund the future growth of the Company. The Company
monitors working capital (net debt) as part of its capital
structure. The Company uses working capital (net debt) (bank
debt plus accounts payable and accrued liabilities less accounts
receivables and accrued receivables, prepaid expenses and deposits
and inventory) as an alternative measure of outstanding debt.
Management considers working capital (net debt) an important
measure to assist in assessing the liquidity of the Company.
Forward-Looking Information and
Statements
This news release contains certain
forward–looking information and statements within the meaning of
applicable securities laws. The use of any of the words "expect",
"anticipate", "continue", "estimate", "may", "will", "project",
"should", "believe", "plans", "intends", “forecast”, "targets”,
"framework" and similar expressions are intended to identify
forward-looking information or statements. In particular, but
without limiting the foregoing, this news release contains forward
looking information and statements pertaining to the following: the
Company’s planned 2022 capital program including wells to be
drilled and completed and the timing of the same; 2022 guidance
based on the planned capital program including forecasts of 2022
annual average production levels, debt adjusted production levels,
adjusted funds flow, free adjusted funds flow, Net Debt/EBITDA
ratio, and growth rates; the Company’s long-term forecast including
wells to be drilled and completed and the timing of the same;
production estimates based on the planned capital program including
forecasts of annual average production levels, debt adjusted
production levels, adjusted funds flow, free adjusted funds flow,
working capital, Net Debt/EBITDA ratio, EV/DAAFF and growth rates;
light oil and liquids weighting estimates; the expectation that the
Company will be in the upper half of our full year 2022 production
guidance; the expectation of high industry activity levels in the
first quarter of 2023; the expectation that the Belly River wells
will significantly reduce operating expenses in the field; the
Company's business strategy, milestones and objectives including,
without limitation, the anticipated continuation of debt reduction
throughout the year; the expectation that the Company will generate
strong FAFF through 2025; expectations regarding the use of
additional FAFF; expectations regarding the Company’s share buyback
program, including the timing of the same; expectations regarding
future commodity prices including InPlay’s belief that strong
commodity pricing will remain leading to a multi-year crude bull
cycle in crude oil prices; future oil and natural gas prices;
future liquidity and financial capacity; future results from
operations and operating metrics; future costs, expenses and
royalty rates; future interest costs; the exchange rate between the
$US and $Cdn; future development, exploration, acquisition,
development and infrastructure activities and related capital
expenditures, including our planned 2022 capital program and
associated guidance.
Without limitation of the foregoing, readers are
cautioned that the Company's return to shareholders framework
including a share buyback program and future dividend payments to
shareholders of the Company, if any, and the level thereof remains
uncertain and accordingly management's expectations related thereto
should not be unduly relied upon. The Company's share buyback
program, if any, dividend policy and funds available for the
repurchase of shares or payment of dividends, if any, from time to
time, is dependent upon, among other things, levels of FAFF,
leverage ratios, financial requirements for the Company's
operations and execution of its growth strategy, fluctuations in
commodity prices and working capital, the timing and amount of
capital expenditures, credit facility availability and limitations
on distributions existing thereunder, and other factors beyond the
Company's control. Further, the ability of the Company to implement
a return to shareholder program will be subject to applicable laws,
including, but not limited to, satisfaction of solvency tests under
the ABCA, approval of the Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”) and
satisfaction of certain applicable contractual restrictions
contained in the agreements governing the Company's outstanding
indebtedness.
Forward-looking statements or information are
based on a number of material factors, expectations or assumptions
of InPlay which have been used to develop such statements and
information but which may prove to be incorrect. Although InPlay
believes that the expectations reflected in such forward looking
statements or information are reasonable, undue reliance should not
be placed on forward-looking statements because InPlay can give no
assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. In
addition to other factors and assumptions which may be identified
herein, assumptions have been made regarding, among other things:
the impact of increasing competition; the general stability of the
economic and political environment in which InPlay operates; the
timely receipt of any required regulatory approvals; the ability of
InPlay to obtain qualified staff, equipment and services in a
timely and cost efficient manner; drilling results; the ability of
the operator of the projects in which InPlay has an interest in to
operate the field in a safe, efficient and effective manner; the
ability of InPlay to obtain debt financing on acceptable terms and
the anticipated lifting of certain restrictions on the payment of
distributions to shareholders which currently exist thereunder;
field production rates and decline rates; the ability to replace
and expand oil and natural gas reserves through acquisition,
development and exploration; the timing and cost of pipeline,
storage and facility construction and the ability of InPlay to
secure adequate product transportation; future commodity prices;
that various conditions to a shareholder return strategy can be
satisfied, including TSX approval; expectations regarding the
potential impact of COVID-19 and the Russia/Ukraine conflict;
currency, exchange and interest rates; regulatory framework
regarding royalties, taxes and environmental matters in the
jurisdictions in which InPlay operates; and the ability of InPlay
to successfully market its oil and natural gas products. The
forward-looking information and statements included herein are not
guarantees of future performance and should not be unduly relied
upon. Such information and statements, including the assumptions
made in respect thereof, involve known and unknown risks,
uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or
events to defer materially from those anticipated in such
forward-looking information or statements including, without
limitation: the continuing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the
Russia/Ukraine conflict; changes in our planned 2022 capital
program; changes in commodity prices and other assumptions outlined
herein; the risk that the Company is unable to implement a return
to shareholder strategy or, if implemented, the risk that such
strategy may be reduced, suspended or cancelled; the potential for
variation in the quality of the reservoirs in which we operate;
changes in the demand for or supply of our products; unanticipated
operating results or production declines; changes in tax or
environmental laws, royalty rates or other regulatory matters;
changes in development plans or strategies of InPlay or by third
party operators of our properties; changes in our credit structure,
increased debt levels or debt service requirements; inaccurate
estimation of our light crude oil and natural gas reserve and
resource volumes; limited, unfavorable or a lack of access to
capital markets; increased costs; a lack of adequate insurance
coverage; the impact of competitors; and certain other risks
detailed from time-to-time in InPlay's continuous disclosure
documents filed on SEDAR including our Annual Information Form and
our MD&A.
This press release contains future-oriented
financial information and financial outlook information
(collectively, "FOFI") about InPlay’s financial and leverage
targets and objectives and InPlay’s long-term forecast, all of
which are subject to the same assumptions, risk factors,
limitations, and qualifications as set forth in the above
paragraphs. The actual results of operations of InPlay and the
resulting financial results will likely vary from the amounts set
forth in this press release and such variation may be material.
InPlay and its management believe that the FOFI has been prepared
on a reasonable basis, reflecting management's best estimates and
judgments. However, because this information is subjective and
subject to numerous risks, it should not be relied on as
necessarily indicative of future results. Except as required by
applicable securities laws, InPlay undertakes no obligation to
update such FOFI. FOFI contained in this press release was made as
of the date of this press release and was provided for the purpose
of providing further information about InPlay's anticipated future
business operations and strategy. Readers are cautioned that the
FOFI contained in this press release should not be used for
purposes other than for which it is disclosed herein.
The forward-looking information and statements
contained in this news release speak only as of the date hereof and
InPlay does not assume any obligation to publicly update or revise
any of the included forward-looking statements or information,
whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise,
except as may be required by applicable securities laws.
The key budget and underlying material
assumptions used by the Company in the development of its 2022
guidance and long-term forecast including forecasted production,
operating income, capital expenditures, AFF, FAFF, working capital
(net debt), Net Debt/EBITDA, DAPPS and EV/DAAFF are as follows:
|
|
ActualsFY 2021 |
Previous GuidanceFY 2022(1) |
Updated GuidanceFY 2022 |
ForecastFY 2023 |
ForecastFY 2024 |
ForecastFY 2025 |
WTI |
US$/bbl |
$67.91 |
$95.40 |
$93.25 |
$75.00 |
$70.00 |
$65.00 |
NGL Price |
$/boe |
$37.79 |
$47.80 |
$50.50 |
$43.00 |
$40.00 |
$37.25 |
AECO |
$/GJ |
$3.44 |
$6.00 |
$5.15 |
$4.90 |
$4.50 |
$4.65 |
Foreign Exchange Rate |
CDN$/US$ |
0.80 |
0.79 |
0.77 |
0.73 |
0.73 |
0.73 |
MSW Differential |
US$/bbl |
$3.88 |
$2.70 |
$1.90 |
$3.75 |
$3.75 |
$3.75 |
Production |
Boe/d |
5,768 |
8,900 – 9,400 |
9,150 – 9,400 |
9,900 – 10,400 |
10,650 – 11,200 |
11,300 – 11,900 |
Royalties |
$/boe |
5.51 |
11.50 – 13.00 |
10.10 – 11.60 |
7.75 – 9.25 |
6.25 – 7.75 |
5.00 – 6.50 |
Operating Expenses |
$/boe |
12.83 |
11.00 – 14.00 |
11.00 – 14.00 |
10.50 – 13.50 |
10.00 – 13.00 |
9.50 – 12.50 |
Transportation |
$/boe |
1.11 |
1.05 – 1.30 |
1.05 – 1.30 |
1.00 – 1.25 |
0.90 – 1.15 |
0.85 – 1.10 |
Interest |
$/boe |
2.67 |
0.85 – 1.25 |
1.20 – 1.60 |
0.00 – 0.50 |
0.00 – 0.10 |
0.00 – 0.10 |
General and Administrative |
$/boe |
2.83 |
2.40 – 2.95 |
2.40 – 2.95 |
2.25 – 2.75 |
2.20 – 2.70 |
2.15 – 2.65 |
Hedging loss |
$/boe |
6.20 |
1.85 – 2.15 |
1.90 – 2.20 |
– |
– |
– |
Decommissioning Expenditures |
$ millions |
$1.4 |
$2.0 – $2.5 |
$2.0 – $2.5 |
$3.5 – $4.0 |
$5.0 – $5.5 |
$5.0 – $5.5 |
Adjusted Funds Flow |
$ millions |
$47.0 |
$147 – $156 |
$139 – $143 |
$134 – $140 |
$136 – $142 |
$133 – $139 |
|
|
ActualsFY 2021 |
Previous GuidanceFY 2022(1) |
Updated GuidanceFY 2022 |
ForecastFY 2023 |
ForecastFY 2024 |
ForecastFY 2025 |
Adjusted Funds Flow |
$ millions |
$47.0 |
$147 – $156 |
$139 – $143 |
$134 – $140 |
$136 – $142 |
$133 – $139 |
Capital Expenditures |
$ millions |
$33.3 |
$64 |
$70 – $72 |
$69 – $71 |
$75 – $77 |
$80 – $82 |
Free Adjusted Funds Flow |
$ millions |
$13.6 |
$83 - $92 |
$67 – $73 |
$63 – $71 |
$59 – $67 |
$51 – $59 |
|
|
ActualsFY 2021 |
Previous GuidanceFY 2022(1) |
Updated GuidanceFY 2022 |
ForecastFY 2023 |
ForecastFY 2024 |
ForecastFY 2025 |
Adjusted Funds Flow |
$ millions |
$47.0 |
$147 – $156 |
$139 – $143 |
$134 – $140 |
$136 – $142 |
$133 – $139 |
Interest |
$/boe |
2.67 |
0.85 – 1.25 |
1.20 – 1.60 |
0.00 – 0.50 |
0.00 – 0.10 |
0.00 – 0.10 |
EBITDA |
$ millions |
$52.6 |
$150 – $159 |
$143 – $147 |
$135 – $141 |
$136 – $142 |
$133 – $139 |
Working Capital (Net Debt) |
$ millions |
($80.2) |
$1 – $10 |
($12) – ($16) |
$43 – $50 |
$97 – $103 |
$141 – $147 |
Net Debt/EBITDA |
|
1.5 |
0.0 – 0.1 |
0.1 – 0.2 |
(0.3) – (0.4) |
(0.7) – (0.8) |
(1.0) – (1.1) |
|
|
ActualsFY 2021 |
Previous GuidanceFY 2022(1) |
Updated GuidanceFY 2022 |
ForecastFY 2023 |
ForecastFY 2024 |
ForecastFY 2025 |
Production |
Boe/d |
5,768 |
8,900 – 9,400 |
9,150 – 9,400 |
9,900 – 10,400 |
10,650 – 11,200 |
11,300 – 11,900 |
Opening Working Cap. (Net Debt) |
$ millions |
($73.7) |
($80.2) |
($80.2) |
($12) – ($16) |
$43 – $50 |
$97 – $103 |
Ending Working Cap. (Net Debt) |
$ millions |
($80.2) |
$1 – $10 |
($12) – ($16) |
$43 – $50 |
$97 – $103 |
$141 – $147 |
Weighted avg. outstanding shares |
# millions |
69.8 |
86.5 |
86.9 |
87.1 |
87.1 |
87.1 |
Assumed Share price |
$ |
1.16(4) |
3.66 |
2.50 |
2.50 |
2.50 |
2.50 |
DAPPS Growth(2) |
|
31% |
70% - 80% |
83% - 92% |
46% - 59% |
40% - 45% |
30% - 35% |
|
|
ActualsFY 2021 |
Previous GuidanceFY 2022(1) |
Updated GuidanceFY 2022 |
ForecastFY 2023 |
ForecastFY 2024 |
ForecastFY 2025 |
Share outstanding, end of year |
# millions |
86.2 |
86.5 |
87.1 |
87.1 |
87.1 |
87.1 |
Assumed Share price |
$ |
2.18(3) |
3.66 |
2.50 |
2.50 |
2.50 |
2.50 |
Market capitalization |
$ millions |
$188 |
$317 |
$218 |
$218 |
$218 |
$218 |
Working Capital (Net Debt) |
$ millions |
($80.2) |
$1 – $10 |
($12) – ($16) |
$43 – $50 |
$97 – $103 |
$141 – $147 |
Enterprise value |
$millions |
$268.2 |
$307 – $316 |
$230 – $234 |
$168 – $175 |
$115 – $121 |
$71 – $77 |
Adjusted Funds Flow |
$ millions |
$47.0 |
$147 – $156 |
$139 – $143 |
$134 – $140 |
$136 – $142 |
$133 – $139 |
Interest |
$/boe |
2.67 |
0.85 – 1.25 |
1.20 – 1.60 |
0.00 – 0.50 |
0.00 – 0.10 |
0.00 – 0.10 |
Debt Adjusted AFF |
$ millions |
$49.7 |
$151– $160 |
$143 – $147 |
$135 – $141 |
$136 – $142 |
$133 – $139 |
EV/DAAFF |
|
5.4 |
1.9 – 2.1 |
1.5 – 1.6 |
1.2 – 1.3 |
0.8 – 0.9 |
0.5 – 0.6 |
(1) As previously released May
11, 2022.
(2) Production per debt
adjusted share is calculated by the Company as production divided
by debt adjusted shares. Debt adjusted shares is calculated by the
Company as common shares outstanding plus the change in working
capital (net debt) divided by the Company's current trading price
on the TSX, converting working capital (net debt) to equity. Share
price at December 31, 2022 through December 31, 2025 is assumed to
be consistent with the current share price.
(3) Ending share price at
December 31, 2021.
(4) Weighted average share
price throughout 2021.
-
See “Production Breakdown by Product Type” below
- Quality and
pipeline transmission adjustments may impact realized oil prices in
addition to the MSW Differential provided above
- Changes in
working capital (net debt) are not assumed to have a material
impact between Dec 31, 2021 and Dec 31, 2022.
Production Breakdown by Product
TypeDisclosure of production on a per boe basis in this
press release consists of the constituent product types as defined
in National Instrument 51-101, Standards of Disclosure for Oil and
Gas Activities and their respective quantities disclosed in the
table below:
|
Light and MediumCrude
oil(bbls/d) |
|
NGLS(boe/d) |
|
Conventional Natural
gas(Mcf/d) |
|
Total(boe/d) |
2022 Annual Guidance |
4,014 |
|
1,340 |
|
23,530 |
|
9,275(1) |
2023 Annual Forecast |
4,355 |
|
1,380 |
|
26,500 |
|
10,150(2) |
2024 Annual Forecast |
4,660 |
|
1,500 |
|
28,600 |
|
11,925(2) |
2025 Annual Forecast |
4,590 |
|
1,645 |
|
32,200 |
|
11,600(2) |
Current Production |
4,050 |
|
1,520 |
|
24,190 |
|
9,600 |
Notes:
- This reflects
the mid-point of the Company’s 2022 production guidance range of
9,150 to 9,400 boe/d.
- This reflects
the mid-point of the Company’s annual production forecast
range.
- With respect to
forward-looking production guidance, product type breakdown is
based upon management's expectations based on reasonable
assumptions but are subject to variability based on actual well
results.
References to crude oil, NGLs or natural gas
production in this press release refer to the light and medium
crude oil, natural gas liquids and conventional natural gas product
types, respectively, as defined in NI 51-101.
BOE Equivalent Barrel of oil
equivalents or BOEs may be misleading, particularly if used in
isolation. A BOE conversion ratio of 6 mcf: 1 bbl is based on an
energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the
burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the
wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of
crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different
than the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a 6:1 conversion
basis may be misleading as an indication of value.
Oil and Gas MetricsThis presentation may contain
metrics commonly used in the oil and natural gas industry, such as
“payout”. This term does not have standardized meaning or
standardized methods of calculation and therefore may not be
comparable to similar measures presented by other companies, and
therefore should not be used to make such comparisons. Management
uses oil and gas metrics for its own performance measurements and
to provide shareholders with measures to compare InPlay's
operations over time. Readers are cautioned that the information
provided by these metrics, or that can be derived from the metrics
presented in this presentation, should not be unduly relied
upon.
“Payout” refers to the time
required to pay back the capital expenditures (on a before tax
basis) of a project.
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