Bitcoin Bears Ran Out Of Coins? What This Analyst Forecast For BTC At Around $30,000
August 10 2023 - 7:00PM
NEWSBTC
Despite today’s macroeconomic developments, the price of Bitcoin
continues to move sideways and seems likely to stay on this path.
The number one crypto by market cap has seen its volatility drop to
fresh lows as its price is trapped at current levels. Related
Reading: Ethereum Price Prints Bullish Technical Pattern, Why Close
Above $1,880 Is Critical At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at
$26,600 with sideways movement in the last 24 hours. Over the past
seven days, the cryptocurrency has recorded some profits but has
been unable to break above or below the $28,000 to $30,500 range. A
New Normal For Bitcoin? Volatility Likely To Decline Until This
Changes Analyst Dylan LeClair pointed out that operators in the
derivatives sector have dominated the current Bitcoin price action.
In that sense, the BTC spot-to-derivative trading volume ratio
followed volatility and declined to all-time lows. As seen in the
chart below, this ratio shows that the spot market has been
suppressed by the derivatives sector, with traders “chopping each
other to oblivion.” LeClair stated the following: (…) spot bears
have mostly run out of coins & spot bulls are either fully
deployed or are sidelined TradFi waiting for ETF approval. With the
U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) out of session until September and low
uncertainty in the short term, the price of Bitcoin seems poised to
keep chopping around its current levels. In this environment,
derivatives traders will likely profit from selling volatility via
different financial instruments. Data from the derivatives platform
Deribit shows an uptick in call (buy) contracts on the options
sectors for October to December expiry. A report posted by this
platform from Rogue Trader Academy highlights the need for a
catalyst to push BTC out of its current range. The market is
positioning itself for a Bitcoin spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)
approval in Q4, 2023, thus why players on the options markets are
accumulating calls. Selling volatility has been a profitable
strategy in July. Still, as the metric hovers around historical
lows, traders become more resilient to dump their contracts on the
derivatives sector, further suppressing BTC’s price. Rogue Trader
Academy stated: (…) those selling volatility (gamma sellers) are
growing hesitant to offload at such historically low implied vol
levels, especially with significant economic data like the US
Consumer Price Index (CPI) on the horizon for this week. Related
Reading: PEPE Coin Makes Minor Gains With 3.5% Spike – Sign Of
Recovery? In this low volatility, low liquidity environment, only a
catalyst will push BTC beyond $30,000 and beyond $40,000 by the end
of the year. Something seems apparent in this context: Bitcoin
seems ahead of any bullish narrative and likely to outperform in
the sector for the remainder of 2023. Cover image from Unsplash,
chart from Tradingview
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