NEW
YORK, Feb. 28, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The
commercial aviation fleet is projected to grow 28% over the next 10
years, expanding from today's 28,400 aircraft to 36,400 by 2034,
according to a new report from consulting firm Oliver Wyman, a
business of Marsh McLennan (NYSE:MMC). The data come from the
24th edition of the Global Fleet and MRO Market
Forecast 2024-2034.
"Having clawed its way back from COVID, the industry is finally
out of recovery mode and on a growth trajectory," said Anthony DiNota, Vice President of Oliver Wyman's CAVOK. "But the pandemic is
having a lasting impact. Before COVID the fleet was slated to reach
39,000 aircraft by 2030. However, this won't happen until 2036,
with COVID wiping out six years of growth."
Meanwhile, the maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) sector
will grow almost 3% in 2024, reaching $104
billion, and expand 1.8% annually on average through
2034.
Key findings of the forecast include:
- Growth rate – The industry has now matched its
pre-COVID peak, but growth moving forward will be slower. The fleet
will expand 2.5% annually (compound annual growth rate) versus the
2.9% projected in last year's 2023-2033 forecast. Narrowbodies are
expected to see a steady increase in their share of the fleet,
rising from 61% in 2024 to 63% in 2034. This growth is driven by
the resurgence of domestic air travel worldwide, which is projected
to surpass the pre-COVID peak.
- India leads in growth
– For the first time ever, India will overtake
China as the industry's growth
leader, with the Indian fleet expected to expand almost 13% over
the first five years of the forecast period and nearly 10% for the
entire 10 years. Currently at about 600 planes, the Indian
fleet will be 2.5 times the size it is today by 2034.
- MRO – The aviation's global aftermarket, known as MRO,
keeps aircraft flying. It is expected to expand to $124 billion by 2034. A raft of next-generation
engines has entered the market over the past year, all of which
have experienced their fair share of operational issues. For this
reason, engine MRO will grow faster than other segments of the
aftermarket, at a compound annual growth rate of 2.3%.
- Pilot shortage – The industry is seeing relief from
the pilot shortage as salaries for all pilots rise and more
candidates seek their airline transport pilot certification. In
North America, where the shortage
has been the most acute, the gap between supply and demand will
peak in 2026 at 24,000. The shortage will continue to put
pressure on airlines – particularly regional airlines and ultra
low-cost carriers in the United
States – for the next 10 years.
- Climate change – There remains uncertainty
over how climate change will affect the industry's ability to grow.
Already, some countries in the European Union have eliminated
short-haul flights, and EU Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) mandates
will go into effect in 2025 when 2% of all fuel at European
airports will have to be SAF. With the capability to cut emissions
50% and 80%, SAF can have a significant impact. While the
technology exists and some airlines are already utilizing SAF, the
current supply is insufficient to support the necessary growth in
consumption required to achieve substantial reductions in aviation
emissions.
"The aviation industry is grappling with a multitude of
challenges, including a fragile manufacturing supply chain, labor
shortages, and higher capital costs. These obstacles are further
complicated by geopolitical tensions and the pressing issue of
climate change. The industry needs to position itself for
sustainable growth while addressing the challenges it currently
faces," said Brian Prentice,
Partner, Oliver Wyman, and co-author
of the report.
About the Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast
2024-2034
The 2024-2034 edition of Oliver
Wyman's Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast represents its
more than two-decade commitment to the understanding and assessment
of the commercial airline transport fleet and the associated MRO
market outlook. The commentary is the go-to resource of aviation
executives—whether a manufacturer, operator, or aftermarket
provider, as well as for those with financial interests in the
sector through private equity firms and investment banks. The
report provides a 10-year outlook for the commercial airline
transport fleet and the associated maintenance, repair, and
overhaul (MRO) market. This annually produced report, along with
our Airline Economic Analysis, are staple resources to executives
working in aerospace manufacturing, airlines, MRO, and financing of
the sector through private equity firms and investment banks.
About Oliver
Wyman
Oliver Wyman is a global
leader in management consulting. With offices in more than 70
cities across 30 countries, Oliver
Wyman combines deep industry knowledge with specialized
expertise in strategy, operations, risk management, and
organization transformation. The firm has 7,000 professionals
around the world who work with clients to optimize their business,
improve their operations and risk profile, and accelerate their
organizational performance to seize the most attractive
opportunities. Oliver Wyman is a
business of Marsh McLennan [NYSE: MMC]. For more information,
visit www.oliverwyman.com. Follow Oliver Wyman on
LinkedIn and X.
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SOURCE Oliver Wyman