NEW YORK, July 28, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Dow
Jones Indices today released the latest results for the
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of
U.S. home prices. Data released today for May 2015 show that home prices continued their
rise across the country over the last 12 months. More than 27 years
of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed
in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on
the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices'
housing blog: www.housingviews.com.
Year-over-Year
The 10-City Composite and National
indices showed slightly higher year-over-year gains while the
20-City Composite had marginally lower year-over-year gains when
compared to last month. The 10-City Composite gained 4.7%
year-over-year, while the 20-City Composite gained 4.9%
year-over-year. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price
Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 4.4%
annual increase in May 2015 versus a
4.3% increase in April 2015.
Denver, San Francisco, and Dallas reported the highest year-over-year
gains among the 20 cities with price increases of 10.0%, 9.7% and
8.4%, respectively. Ten cities reported greater price increases in
the year ended May 2015 over the year
ended April 2015. New York and Phoenix reported six consecutive months of
increases in their year-over-year returns since November 2014. Year-over-year returns in
New York increased from 1.3% in
November 2014 to 3.0% in May 2015, and Phoenix climbed from 2.0% to 3.8% in the same
period.
Month-over-Month
Before seasonal adjustment, in May
the National index, 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite all
posted a gain of 1.1% month-over-month. After seasonal adjustment,
the National index was unchanged; the 10-City and 20-City
Composites were both down 0.2% month-over-month. All 20 cities
reported increases in May before seasonal adjustment; after
seasonal adjustment, 10 were down, eight were up, and two were
unchanged.
Analysis
"As home prices continue rising, they are
sending more upbeat signals than other housing market indicators,"
says David M. Blitzer, Managing
Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones
Indices. "Nationally, single family home price increases have
settled into a steady 4%-5% annual pace following the double-digit
bubbly pattern of 2013. Over the next two years or so, the rate of
home price increases is more likely to slow than to accelerate.
Prices are increasing about twice as fast as inflation or wages.
Moreover, other housing measures are less robust. Housing starts
are only at about 1.2 million units annually, and only about half
of total starts are single family homes. Sales of new homes are low
compared to sales of existing homes.
"First time homebuyers are the weak spot in the market. First
time buyers provide the demand and liquidity that supports trading
up by current home owners. Without a boost in first timers, there
is less housing market activity, fewer existing homes being put on
the market, and more worry about inventory. Research at the Atlanta
Federal Reserve Bank argues that one should not blame millennials
for the absence of first time buyers. The age distribution of first
time buyers has not changed much since 2000; if anything, the
median age has dropped slightly. Other research at the New York Fed
points to the size of mortgage down payments as a key factor. The
difference between a 5% and 20% down payment, particularly for
people who currently rent, has a huge impact on buyers' willingness
to buy a home. Mortgage rates are far less important to first time
buyers than down payments."
Table 1 below summarizes the results for May 2015. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price
Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt
of additional source data.
|
May
2015
|
May/April
|
April/March
|
1-Year
|
Metropolitan
Area
|
Level
|
Change
(%)
|
Change
(%)
|
Change
(%)
|
Atlanta
|
123.25
|
1.4%
|
1.4%
|
5.1%
|
Boston
|
179.30
|
1.5%
|
0.3%
|
2.2%
|
Charlotte
|
133.44
|
0.7%
|
0.9%
|
4.9%
|
Chicago
|
130.81
|
1.3%
|
1.2%
|
2.2%
|
Cleveland
|
107.87
|
1.5%
|
1.2%
|
1.6%
|
Dallas
|
150.22
|
0.9%
|
1.1%
|
8.4%
|
Denver
|
167.89
|
1.1%
|
1.9%
|
10.0%
|
Detroit
|
99.90
|
0.8%
|
1.2%
|
3.9%
|
Las Vegas
|
142.23
|
1.5%
|
1.0%
|
6.7%
|
Los
Angeles
|
235.35
|
1.1%
|
1.3%
|
6.1%
|
Miami
|
200.07
|
0.8%
|
0.9%
|
8.0%
|
Minneapolis
|
144.45
|
1.1%
|
1.2%
|
3.0%
|
New York
|
177.40
|
1.0%
|
0.6%
|
3.0%
|
Phoenix
|
151.57
|
0.8%
|
0.8%
|
3.8%
|
Portland
|
179.39
|
1.4%
|
1.7%
|
7.4%
|
San Diego
|
211.75
|
0.9%
|
0.6%
|
4.8%
|
San
Francisco
|
213.63
|
1.3%
|
2.2%
|
9.7%
|
Seattle
|
180.55
|
1.4%
|
2.2%
|
7.4%
|
Tampa
|
169.39
|
0.7%
|
0.6%
|
6.4%
|
Washington
|
212.08
|
1.0%
|
1.4%
|
1.3%
|
Composite-10
|
194.00
|
1.1%
|
1.1%
|
4.7%
|
Composite-20
|
179.03
|
1.1%
|
1.1%
|
4.9%
|
U.S.
National
|
172.08
|
1.1%
|
1.1%
|
4.4%
|
Source: S&P
Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
|
|
|
Data through May
2015
|
|
|
|
Table 2 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the
seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data.
Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price
Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported
on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline
indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices
publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline
indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price
indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.
|
May/April Change
(%)
|
April/March Change
(%)
|
Metropolitan
Area
|
NSA
|
SA
|
NSA
|
SA
|
Atlanta
|
1.4%
|
-0.5%
|
1.4%
|
-0.6%
|
Boston
|
1.5%
|
-0.4%
|
0.3%
|
-0.5%
|
Charlotte
|
0.7%
|
0.1%
|
0.9%
|
0.1%
|
Chicago
|
1.3%
|
-0.9%
|
1.2%
|
-0.5%
|
Cleveland
|
1.5%
|
-0.1%
|
1.2%
|
-0.5%
|
Dallas
|
0.9%
|
-0.1%
|
1.1%
|
-0.1%
|
Denver
|
1.1%
|
0.0%
|
1.9%
|
0.9%
|
Detroit
|
0.8%
|
-0.7%
|
1.2%
|
1.0%
|
Las Vegas
|
1.5%
|
1.0%
|
1.0%
|
0.9%
|
Los
Angeles
|
1.1%
|
0.1%
|
1.3%
|
0.5%
|
Miami
|
0.8%
|
0.5%
|
0.9%
|
0.5%
|
Minneapolis
|
1.1%
|
0.3%
|
1.2%
|
0.9%
|
New York
|
1.0%
|
-0.1%
|
0.6%
|
0.4%
|
Phoenix
|
0.8%
|
0.2%
|
0.8%
|
0.4%
|
Portland
|
1.4%
|
0.3%
|
1.7%
|
0.5%
|
San Diego
|
0.9%
|
0.2%
|
0.6%
|
-0.5%
|
San
Francisco
|
1.3%
|
-0.7%
|
2.2%
|
-0.2%
|
Seattle
|
1.4%
|
0.0%
|
2.2%
|
0.6%
|
Tampa
|
0.7%
|
-0.1%
|
0.6%
|
-0.2%
|
Washington
|
1.0%
|
-0.2%
|
1.4%
|
-0.2%
|
Composite-10
|
1.1%
|
-0.2%
|
1.1%
|
0.0%
|
Composite-20
|
1.1%
|
-0.2%
|
1.1%
|
0.0%
|
U.S.
National
|
1.1%
|
0.0%
|
1.1%
|
0.0%
|
Source: S&P
Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
|
|
|
Data through May
2015
|
|
|
|
About the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
The
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are published on the last
Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET.
They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical
single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided.
Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual
houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The
S&P/Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price Index tracks the
value of single-family housing within the
United States. The index is a composite of single-family
home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions. The
S&P/Case-Shiller Composite of 10 Home Price Index is a
value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The
S&P/Case-Shiller Composite of 20 Home Price Index is a
value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices
have a base value of 100 in January
2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150
translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within
the subject market.
These Indices are generated and published under agreements
between S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic.
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are produced by
CoreLogic. In addition to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price
Indices, CoreLogic also offers home price index sets covering
thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets.
The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just
a small subset of the broader data available through CoreLogic.
About S&P Dow Jones Indices
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For more information:
David
Guarino
Head of Communications
S&P Dow Jones Indices
dave.guarino@spdji.com
212-438-1471
David Blitzer
Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee
S&P Dow Jones Indices
david.blitzer@spdji.com
212-438-3907
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visit:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/home-price-gains-lead-housing-according-to-the-spcase-shiller-home-price-indices-300119720.html
SOURCE S&P Dow Jones Indices