Euro Falls After Italians Reject Constitutional Overhaul: Update
December 04 2016 - 6:49PM
Dow Jones News
By Jon Sindreu
The euro fell after exit polls released Sunday showed a "no"
vote in Italy's constitutional referendum, but contained losses are
a sign that investors had already anticipated an unfavorable result
for Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.
As the vote count was under way, the common currency fell to
$1.0557, about 1% lower against the U.S. dollar from Friday's
close. Against the yen -- a traditional haven currency -- it lost
1.4%.
Futures on the S&P 500 pointed to an 0.4% opening loss for
the U.S. stock market, while the Australian S&P ASX 200 was
down 0.7% shortly after the market open. Japan's benchmark Nikkei
225 opened down 0.4%.
As the vote count went on, Mr. Renzi admitted defeat and
announced he will resign from office, after exit polls showed the
"no" ahead at 59.1% of the vote. Early results also depicted the
"no" ahead at 59%.
Stephen Gallo, head of foreign-exchange strategy at BMO
Financial Group, had already been expecting the euro to lose 1%
against the dollar.
"Given the political currents at work in the eurozone, I think
it's virtually impossible for pro-integration politicians to finish
building the missing architecture of the single currency area," he
said. "Eurozone break-up risks are rising."
The euro has been on a steep slide since early November and
isn't far from levels last seen in the early 2000s. This increases
the chances the euro will soon reach long-awaited parity with the
dollar, which hasn't happened since late 2002 -- the euro began
life in 1999 trading at $1.17, but spent most of its early life
below $1.
While much of its recent drop is due to a stronger dollar,
analysts point to the Italian referendum as another key factor.
Indeed, a negative result is a blow to Mr. Renzi and his
reformist pro-European government, while bolstering the populist
Five Star Movement, currently Italy's largest political opposition,
and possibly other euroskeptics across the Continent.
On Monday, European stocks and bonds will be a key test of how
worried investors are about the eurozone. Nevertheless, the euro's
early reaction was still muted enough to suggest that financial
markets had mostly priced in a negative vote in the referendum and
are unlikely to seize up.
"We've been short the euro for quite some time," said Gregory
McGreevey, chief executive officer of Invesco Fixed Income, who
said his firm's bet against Italian sovereign bonds had also
delivered good results over the last few weeks.
The spread between Italian 10-year government-bond yields and
German ones has risen to a two-year high, an indication that fears
about the integrity of the eurozone are on the rise, but still much
below where they were during the euro crisis of 2010 to 2012.
Another key gauge of investor sentiment will be eurozone banks.
Their stock prices are down 18% since the start of the year, even
after having regained many of the early-year losses over the last
five months. Global investors are concerned, however, that a "no"
vote could derail Mr. Renzi's plans to nurse Italy's beleaguered
banks back to health.
The extent of the political risk facing the European project
will become clearer as the fallout from the Italian referendum
unfolds, analysts say. Despite Mr. Renzi's pledge to resign, many
believe he could be succeeded by a grand coalition, which would
keep the Five Star Movement at bay.
Austria's rejection of populism in Sunday's presidential
election is likely to provide some optimism to markets, ahead of a
complicated political calendar in 2017. The Nertherlands, France
and Germany are all facing key elections with euroskeptic parties
on the rise.
Write to Jon Sindreu at jon.sindreu@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 04, 2016 19:34 ET (00:34 GMT)
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