By James Marson, Olga Razumovskaya and Alexander Kolyandr
MOSCOW--As Russian President Vladimir Putin has ratcheted up the
conflict with the West for most of the year, the economic fallout
on ordinary Russians has been limited.
Suddenly, though, the plunging ruble is reawakening fears of
rising prices and the kind of financial crisis Mr. Putin has sought
to put behind his country. As the ruble hit a record low, falling
as much as 20% against the dollar Tuesday, Moscow residents rushed
to buy electronics and other big-ticket items and drained rubles
from ATMs to swap them for dollars and euros--signaling a new
feeling of vulnerability among Russians and a fresh challenge to
their leader.
From St. Petersburg to Siberia, money changers ran out of
foreign currency and were raising exchange rates. Sberbank,
Russia's state savings bank, and Alfa Bank, Russia's largest
private lender, said they were experiencing a rush for dollars and
euros.
"The demand is enormous. People are bringing piles, huge piles
of cash. It is madness," said Kamila Asmalova, a manager at a
Moscow branch of Sberbank. The branch ran out of foreign currency
by 2 p.m., she said.
Lanta Bank, a midsize Moscow lender, said its foreign
counterparts would be unable to send foreign currency Wednesday as
aircraft that typically transport cash are full.
Apple Inc. said it halted online sales in the country because of
the ruble's volatility, and IKEA announced it would raise prices
there.
The ruble's continued fall despite the Russian central bank's
move to raise interest rates to 17% rippled across global markets
Tuesday, fueling a selloff in emerging market currencies and
stocks. In the U.S., the turbulence was more muted, as the Dow
Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.7%. The yield on the 10-year
Treasury, a traditional haven, fell to 2.07%, its lowest closing
level since May 2013.
Abroad, Russia's crumbling currency--driven by sanctions and
eroding oil prices--raises the threat of a currency market
contagion, particularly for emerging economies facing headwinds,
such as Turkey and Indonesia.
At home, economists say the Russian central bank's rate gambit
is certain to push the country's faltering economy into recession
by raising borrowing costs. Even before the rate increase, the
central bank estimated the economy could contract as much as 4.7%
next year if oil remains around $60 a barrel. On Tuesday, Economy
Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said that the government would introduce
some "regulatory measures" on the foreign-exchange market, but that
it wasn't discussing any capital-control measures.
The big question is whether Russia's economic troubles will turn
into a real political challenge for Mr. Putin, whose approval
ratings remain above 80% and who retains unparalleled control over
politics and the economy.
The faltering economy could fortify the already strong backing
for the Kremlin in its confrontation with the West, since Moscow
blames the problems on enemies.
As the White House said Tuesday that President Barack Obama
would sign a bill turning Russian sanctions into law, Russian
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told television station France 24
that "Russia will not only survive but come out much stronger."
Banks were already bracing for the impact of high interest
rates. UBP fund manager Pavel Laberko said banks would be the first
to be hit by the higher cost of borrowing, with weaker institutions
having to halt operations.
"A lot of [market] participants are in serious condition because
of these events," Bank of Russia Deputy Chairman Sergei Shvetsov
told reporters Tuesday. "The choice the central bank made [to raise
rates] was between very bad and very, very bad."
Global banks also have curtailed the flow of cash to Russian
entities this week. Banks including Goldman Sachs Group have
started rejecting requests from institutional clients to engage in
certain ruble-denominated repurchase agreements and other
transactions designed to raise cash, according to people familiar
with the matter.
With credit more expensive after the rate increase, rising
prices are set to hurt consumers. The Association of Retail
Companies expects food and drink prices to rise by as much as 15%
in the first quarter of next year, according to its spokesman.
Russians have in recent days rushed to spend their rapidly
weakening rubles on electronics and cars before their prices are
expected to rise. M.video, an electronics retailer, attributed
around one-third of current sales to such purchases.
Shoppers reported long lines at IKEA stores in Moscow after the
company announced price increases in the coming days. Last month,
Apple raised the price of the iPhone 6 by 25% in its online store
in Russia as the U.S. dollar continued to rise against the
ruble.
Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets warned that rising prices
would lead to an increased number of people living in poverty, a
rare government acknowledgment of impending economic pain.
Maria Semyonova, a 30-year-old home maker from Nizhny Novgorod
around 200 miles east of Moscow, said she was expecting tough times
paying for her mortgage and baby on her husband's salary and her
maternity pay. She said the family was cutting back on New Year's
presents, buying theater tickets for her parents rather than
spending thousands of rubles on gifts.
Still, Mrs. Semyonova said she and her husband agreed with Mr.
Putin that the West was at fault for the crisis. "I think that
Putin is acting appropriately given the situation," she said.
Mr. Putin's main supporters--poorer people and state
workers--often don't have savings and their expenses are mostly in
rubles. The ruble's slide is mostly hitting the middle classes who
sometimes vacation abroad and have savings. Tatiana Boytsova, a
28-year-old finance professional from St. Petersburg, said her
colleagues spent 40 minutes in line trying to exchange rubles. She
said she and acquaintances were canceling trips abroad even if
tickets couldn't be refunded, since costs there would simply be too
high.
Ms. Boytsova said she wasn't expecting much of an end-of-year
bonus, and was even thinking about trying to sell her ticket to an
opera Friday. "At the moment, money feels better than the opera,"
she said.
Some retailers were putting up prices on Tuesday after holding
them steady for several weeks, so as not to scare customers while
they sold off stock.
A store in central Moscow selling Apple products temporarily
removed old price tags for computers and gadgets on Tuesday, while
printing out new ones with prices higher by as much as $50 in ruble
terms.
Nonna Fomenko
, Chiara Albanese, Daisuke Wakabayashi and Philip Shishkin
contributed to this article.
Write to James Marson at james.marson@wsj.com
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