For Some Builders, Speculative Inventory Losing Taboo
May 27 2009 - 1:48PM
Dow Jones News
After being saddled with unsold inventory following the housing
crash, many home builders all but halted building homes without a
signed contract.
But now, the taboo is slowly wearing off so-called "spec"
inventory.
Builders realize many buyers want to sell their home before
buying again, while first-timers who must close before Dec. 1 to
tap the federal tax credit need to ink deals soon. There's also
fierce competition from existing inventory and bargain-priced
foreclosures. "In order to be competitive today, you have to have
inventory to move into to get a lot of buyers," said Brent
Anderson, vice president of investor relations for Meritage Homes
Corp. (MTH). "They want something that's either completed or nearly
completed. If you don't have inventory on the ground, then you
might be out of luck."
The slight shift shows builders are moving beyond the
post-bubble paralysis focused solely on survival. But any unsold
home remains risky - there are carrying costs and the gamble it
won't take profit-eroding incentives to get it off the books.
Still, some builders say they can't avoid erecting homes without
lining up a buyer first.
To be sure, this is just a few front doors per community,
nothing like the heyday's rampant overbuilding. And not everyone is
interested. KB Home (KBH), the fifth-largest builder by annual
closings, says it is sticking with its build-to-order model.
When the bubble popped, builders found themselves overwhelmed
with not only their speculative homes, but also cancellations, or
unplanned inventory dubbed "accidental specs." It took building
fewer homes paired with massive discounting and freebies including
landscaping and gourmet kitchens - fueling billions in impairments
- to pare the bloated inventory. Some builders also shaved their
construction time, giving contracted buyers a shorter window to
change their minds.
The industry has seen some success - and keeping specs at a
manageable level remains a priority. Still, that leaves impatient
buyers unwilling to endure a multi-month construction period with
limited choices. New home inventory is down 34% year-over-year and
46% from the July 2006 peak, according to JP Morgan analyst Michael
Rehaut. Spec inventory, he added, carries gross margins typically
300-500 basis points below build-to-order homes.
These days, industry giant DR Horton (DHI) leads the pack with
about 5,500 speculative homes, 3,000 completed, the company said
earlier this month. No. 2 Pulte (PHM) has about 2,400 units - 32%
below the fourth-quarter level - with about 1,300 finished.
Both are well above the industry's average of 1,581, with 925
finished, according to an April JP Morgan report. Because they can
still be customized for buyers, uncompleted specs are typically
viewed more favorably.
At the end of its first quarter, meanwhile, Meritage had 550
specs, with 413 finished, down from 1,387 and 865, respectively,
two years ago.
"We went from having way too much inventory, to liquidating all
that, to now being back in a situation where you've got to build
some inventory or risk losing sales," Anderson said. "We are
building more spec homes as a percentage of what we're building
than we have for a long time."
-Dawn Wotapka; Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5248;
dawn.wotapka@dowjones.com