By Nick Godt
The market will begin the peak period for quarterly earnings
reports next week, as evidence grows that the economic pain is
being felt across an ever-broadening range of industries.
At the same time, there's hope the government will announce a
plan to cope with the banking crisis.
"We're waiting to see what's going to come out of Washington to
solve the banking crisis [and eventually] to stimulate the
economy," said Hugh Johnson, chairman of Johnson Illington
Advisors.
Wall Street and owners of financial stocks fear that the
government might seize ailing banks, getting rid of their bad
assets and making a profit where possible, while wiping out their
shareholders.
However, many now believe the plan from the new Obama
administration will be limited to buying banks' toxic assets, the
very same ones which have brought the financial system and the
global economy to its knees over the past year and a half.
On Friday, stocks finished mostly higher, partly lifted by those
expectations.
The broad S&P 500 index (SPX) rose 4 points to 831, and the
Nasdaq Composite (RIXF) gained 11 points to 1,477. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average (DJI), however, fell 45 points to 8,077, weighed
down by bad quarterly results from General Electric (GE), a
bellwether of the global economy.
And after a week full of disappointing results and dimming
outlooks, the Dow finished 2.5% lower than last Friday's close,
while the S&P 500 fell 2.1%, and the Nasdaq lost 3.4%.
Next week, 137 companies from the S&P 500 are expected to
report results, including 12 Dow components: American Express
(AXP), Caterpillar (CAT) and McDonald's (MCD) on Monday; Dupont
(DD) and Verizon (VZ) on Tuesday; Boeing (BA), Pfizer (PFE) and
AT&T (T) on Wednesday, 3M (MMM) on Thursday; followed by
Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Procter & Gamble (PG) on
Friday.
Bad bank
Government plans to try and fix the banking crisis once and for
all, while not officially on the agenda, will likely continue to be
the number one factor for investors.
Some in the market even expect such a plan might be announced
over the weekend.
"Most of the focus will be on that," said Johnson. "Then
investors will ask themselves: Will it work? Is this big enough,
effective and creative enough?"
Expectations are that the government might create an aggregator
"bad bank" that would buy all the toxic assets, mostly bad home
loans and their associated financial derivatives, from troubled
financial institutions.
The move would fall short of what the government did in the
1980s, when it seized ailing savings and loans banks, which wiped
out their shareholders but allowed the government to make money by
the time the banks were sold to new owners.
Earnings pain spreads
Meanwhile, evidence that pain has spread far beyond the ailing
financial sector was amply displayed over the past week.
Overall earnings at S&P 500 companies are now expected to
have fallen 28.1% in the fourth quarter from the year earlier,
compared with forecasts for a drop of 20.2% last week, and of 15.1%
two weeks ago, according to Thomson Financial.
Earnings at financial firms, including regional banks such State
Street (STT) and U.S. Bancorp (USB) and mega-banks such as Bank of
America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) have widely missed estimates.
As a sector, financials earnings are expected to have plunged a
whopping 300% from the year earlier. Analysts had expected
year-on-year comparisons to become easier as banks began to declare
bad assets in the fourth quarter of 2007.
But the theme of the fourth quarter is that pain is now
spreading far beyond financials as global economic weakness takes
its toll, according to John Butters, earnings analyst at
Thomson.
"In past quarter, this was mostly the financials," he said. "But
now, 7 out of the 10 S&P sectors are seeing year-on-year
declines."
The materials sector is next in line, with earnings there
expected to have dropped 72% from the year earlier, amid a collapse
in the price of most commodities. The consumer discretionary is
next, with earnings there expected to be down by 62%. And although
the ailing auto industry is mostly responsible for the weakness of
that sector, retailers have now joined the pack.
The health-care, consumer staples and utilities sectors are the
only sectors expected to see any growth in the quarter, with
earnings in these sectors seen rising 6%, 3%, and 1%,
respectively.
And earnings projections for the rest of the year remain murky,
at best, and worsening in many cases. Earnings are expected to drop
20.2% in the first quarter, and to be down 18.2% in the second
quarter.
"The outlook for the economy is extremely uncertain," said
Johnson of Johnson Illington Advisors. "The consensus is that the
economy would start to recover in the third quarter, but no CEO out
there wants to hang their hat on that forecast."
Economy
An update on the depth of the recession will be provided Friday,
with the advance estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic
production.
Ahead of this, December existing home sales and leading
indicators will be released Monday, followed by the November
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and the Conference Board's
latest reading on consumer confidence on Tuesday.
On Thursday, investors will monitor weekly jobless claims for
the latest on the ailing labor market, along with reports on
December new home sales and durable goods orders.
Friday will bring a reading of manufacturing in the Chicago
region and another consumer survey from the University of
Michigan.
No joy at the Fed
The Federal Reserve will also meet Tuesday and Wednesday. But
the meeting is unlikely to garner as much attention as in other
times, with interest rates already standing practically at
zero.
"For the first time since the credit crisis broke, one thing is
for certain: the Fed won't cut rates any further, given the target
range of 0% to 0.25%," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO
Capital Research.
The central bank, he said in a note, will likely commit to
keeping rates at these exceptionally low levels for as long as
needed, while employing other tools to provide credit to businesses
and individuals.
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